USDJPY no rally one sided retail traders and relative weakness.

1 juin 2017

This chart is a bit tricky.https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/7145717/usdjpy-m30-triple-a-investment It appears bearish long term, however with stocks making new highs many maybe a bit scared to go short this pair. I understand fully on this fear. What scares me is the huge amount of retail longs in this pair. Its about 73%, I do not remember the last time a pair rallied when the retail traders where one sided to this degree. A good example was the start of this week. At 1.4977 16% of EURAUD traders were long.....The chart appeared bearish and I am sure many continued to jump in. I went long but then got scared out before we saw a 230 pips rally in 2 days. I am not taking this off of the technicals I am taking this more on the fundamentals. With the USA having issues at the moment, and OIL down we may see some issues in stocks, however today stocks are up. We will see tomorrow with NFP. I am shorting this pair lets see how it goes.

P.S. Interest rate differentials have increased a little so this may also get more longs into this trade.....