USDPLN Economic ANALYSIS..
USD
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for the second session to 0.664% on Thursday, its lowest level on a closing basis since June 11th, after the US recorded more than 45.5 thousand coronavirus infections on Wednesday, the highest on record according to NBC. The IMF expects the US economy to shrink 8% in 2020, compared to a 5.9% contraction estimated in April due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Recent data showed the US jobless claims rose more than expected for the second week, with more 1.48 million Americans filling for unemployment benefits; and the US economy was confirmed contracting by an annualized 5.0 percent in the first three months of the year, the most since the last quarter of 2008.Also US Jobless Claims Rise 1.5M Despite Economy Reopening.At the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed projected GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020, and then rebound by 5% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. This suggests the central bank does not expect the economy to get back to where it was in 2019 until some time in mid- to late-2022. That would imply an even steeper deterioration in GDP than in 2008, but, based on the Fed’s projections, a slightly faster recovery.
PLN
The rate cut was delivered without a scheduled meeting, in contrast to MPC comments and right after a rapid PLN strengthening. By weakening the zloty, both inflation and exports should be underpinned the unexpected NBP rate cut could indicate that the central bank will counteract any PLN strengthening, per Nordea.
TECHNICAL;
Expecting USDPLN. to rise from the lower demand zone to the neckline retest of the V-shaped recovery,(upper supply zone) the price also though we were in a downtrend. the area in 1 day timeframe. Is the only one which has a bullish candle making it an area of interest for retest as the candle was against trend though it failed and the downtrend continued.
The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for the second session to 0.664% on Thursday, its lowest level on a closing basis since June 11th, after the US recorded more than 45.5 thousand coronavirus infections on Wednesday, the highest on record according to NBC. The IMF expects the US economy to shrink 8% in 2020, compared to a 5.9% contraction estimated in April due to the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. Recent data showed the US jobless claims rose more than expected for the second week, with more 1.48 million Americans filling for unemployment benefits; and the US economy was confirmed contracting by an annualized 5.0 percent in the first three months of the year, the most since the last quarter of 2008.Also US Jobless Claims Rise 1.5M Despite Economy Reopening.At the latest FOMC meeting, the Fed projected GDP would contract by 6.5% in 2020, and then rebound by 5% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. This suggests the central bank does not expect the economy to get back to where it was in 2019 until some time in mid- to late-2022. That would imply an even steeper deterioration in GDP than in 2008, but, based on the Fed’s projections, a slightly faster recovery.
PLN
The rate cut was delivered without a scheduled meeting, in contrast to MPC comments and right after a rapid PLN strengthening. By weakening the zloty, both inflation and exports should be underpinned the unexpected NBP rate cut could indicate that the central bank will counteract any PLN strengthening, per Nordea.
TECHNICAL;
Expecting USDPLN. to rise from the lower demand zone to the neckline retest of the V-shaped recovery,(upper supply zone) the price also though we were in a downtrend. the area in 1 day timeframe. Is the only one which has a bullish candle making it an area of interest for retest as the candle was against trend though it failed and the downtrend continued.
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