USD/TRY: Turkish economy continues to suffer losses
Current trend
The USD/TRY pair is declining amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, currently trading at 14.6460.
Although Turkey is taking active steps towards a possible settlement of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, acting as a mediator in the negotiation process, the country's economy continues to suffer losses. Yesterday, the head of the Turkish Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Simone Kaslowski, said that since the beginning of the conflict, the national economy has already lost more than
40B due to various restrictions. Recent macroeconomic data indirectly confirm it. Thus, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.5%, and in annual terms, the growth of the indicator slowed down to 7.9% from 13.0% in the previous period. According to the official, inflation in the country will not fall below 60% by the end of the year.
The USD Index is holding at the same levels, around 98.800, amid expectations of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be known today. Judging by the numerous statements by regulator officials, the interest rate will be increased by at least 25 basis points. It will not immediately impact inflation, which could act as a deterrent for the dollar. Investors will also be watching today for retail sales data, which is expected to rise 0.4% in February, which is rather subdued given January's 3.8% rise.
Support and resistance
The asset is growing within a global upward wave. Technical indicators keep a strong buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator remains wide and directed upwards, while the histogram of the AO oscillator remains high in the buy zone, despite the formation of local down bars.
Resistance levels: 14.9800, 16.5800.
Support levels: 14.0800, 12.7300.
The USD/TRY pair is declining amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, currently trading at 14.6460.
Although Turkey is taking active steps towards a possible settlement of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, acting as a mediator in the negotiation process, the country's economy continues to suffer losses. Yesterday, the head of the Turkish Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Simone Kaslowski, said that since the beginning of the conflict, the national economy has already lost more than
40B due to various restrictions. Recent macroeconomic data indirectly confirm it. Thus, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.5%, and in annual terms, the growth of the indicator slowed down to 7.9% from 13.0% in the previous period. According to the official, inflation in the country will not fall below 60% by the end of the year.The USD Index is holding at the same levels, around 98.800, amid expectations of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be known today. Judging by the numerous statements by regulator officials, the interest rate will be increased by at least 25 basis points. It will not immediately impact inflation, which could act as a deterrent for the dollar. Investors will also be watching today for retail sales data, which is expected to rise 0.4% in February, which is rather subdued given January's 3.8% rise.
Support and resistance
The asset is growing within a global upward wave. Technical indicators keep a strong buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator remains wide and directed upwards, while the histogram of the AO oscillator remains high in the buy zone, despite the formation of local down bars.
Resistance levels: 14.9800, 16.5800.
Support levels: 14.0800, 12.7300.
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