Continued Long off WTI channel bottom
Apologies for the repeat post - updated my lines onto FXCM ticker instead of TVC because TVC does not show daily volume. I will update from this chart here :)
Oil continues to be volatile at the channel bottom.
Bullish technical signs:
-Oil showed strength at the open and made a higher high from both the preceding Thursday and Friday.
-Oil back-tested the down-ward RED trendline
-Pink trend seems likely, although, traditionally this specific rally has taken the Green route
Bullish fundamental signs:
-Oil is now at a price before OPEC made cuts
-Although supply is still an issue, the last time WTI was at this price, supply was growing rapidly - now it has reached equilibrium, where storage is not building, but it is not shrinking.
-Geopolitical risk has increased in the last couple weeks - see QATAR, RUSSIA, North Korea,
-Driving season
Bearish technical signs:
-RSI is yet to prove itself to be above either the green or the pink trendline (note that, only the closing day RSI matters, therefore, look to market close today to see where RSI ends up)
-Dead-cat-bounce is possible (longs should keep stop-losses handy or take some profit as targets are reached)
Bearish fundamental signs:
-Analysts are predicting shale output to increase more from where it is as of June 2017 - depending on driving season, this may or may not add to the glut.
-Yes... a glut still exists.. bigly
Close above 43.55 would be ideal for longs, would consider a short at 42.15
Disclosure: I am long oil with target of ~49 over course of 2 to 3 weeks.
Oil continues to be volatile at the channel bottom.
Bullish technical signs:
-Oil showed strength at the open and made a higher high from both the preceding Thursday and Friday.
-Oil back-tested the down-ward RED trendline
-Pink trend seems likely, although, traditionally this specific rally has taken the Green route
Bullish fundamental signs:
-Oil is now at a price before OPEC made cuts
-Although supply is still an issue, the last time WTI was at this price, supply was growing rapidly - now it has reached equilibrium, where storage is not building, but it is not shrinking.
-Geopolitical risk has increased in the last couple weeks - see QATAR, RUSSIA, North Korea,
-Driving season
Bearish technical signs:
-RSI is yet to prove itself to be above either the green or the pink trendline (note that, only the closing day RSI matters, therefore, look to market close today to see where RSI ends up)
-Dead-cat-bounce is possible (longs should keep stop-losses handy or take some profit as targets are reached)
Bearish fundamental signs:
-Analysts are predicting shale output to increase more from where it is as of June 2017 - depending on driving season, this may or may not add to the glut.
-Yes... a glut still exists.. bigly
Close above 43.55 would be ideal for longs, would consider a short at 42.15
Disclosure: I am long oil with target of ~49 over course of 2 to 3 weeks.
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