Long term oil looks ready to pop higher

17 juil.

Using TA like trendlines, Gann Trend, CMO, RSI Average, and wave trends when looking on the Weekly I see a big up move coming. I can also see an up move coming on other timeframes as well. Could it cycle down again before the pop...sure.. but it looks to be soon.

What will cause the pop? Im not sure but in 2007 oil started a big up trend right before a rate cut in September (sound familiar?) 2007.

17 juil.

Note

I asked ChatGPT if fed rates affect oil since we have a good possibility of a cut looming in September.

Does fed rate cuts affect oil?
ChatGPT
Yes, Federal Reserve rate cuts can affect oil prices, primarily through their influence on the broader economy and investor sentiment. Here’s how:

Economic Growth: Lower interest rates generally stimulate economic activity by making borrowing cheaper for consumers and businesses. Increased economic activity often leads to higher demand for energy, including oil, which can push up oil prices.

Currency Impact: Fed rate cuts usually lead to a weaker U.S. dollar. Since oil is priced in dollars, a weaker dollar makes oil cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially boosting demand and prices.

Investment Flows: Lower interest rates can make commodities like oil more attractive to investors seeking higher returns compared to low-yielding financial assets. This can increase investment in oil futures, driving up prices.

Inflation Expectations: Rate cuts can lead to higher inflation expectations, which often push up commodity prices, including oil, as investors seek to hedge against inflation.

However, the impact of Fed rate cuts on oil prices can be complex and influenced by other factors such as geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and broader economic conditions.