The Silver war

19 déc. 2019

17 dollars is the psychological level that Silver has been at war with for a while.

Look at the circled zone and you will see how the buyers and sellers are at war with each other.

In August 19, it managed to break out of that level and shoot up to 19.55 before tumbling down to 17 level again in Sept 19. It made a 2nd attempt to break out but only to reach to 18.

Thereafter, it failed once more and price has been hovering around 16.635 to 17.10 zone since Nov 19.

The last 3 candles resembles a triple doji candlestick pattern which means it is at an inflection point. Buyers and sellers are undecided which way to go, up or down, that is why you see the short body within the day of trading.

Once the war is over, we will gain more clarity - be it breakout of the bearish trend (red line) or disappoint the traders and hit 15.98 level.

For now , I am watching closely the price action.

23 déc. 2019

Note

praise the lord. It has now break out of the bearish trend line. Let's wait and see if it is a fake breakout before we take any position.

26 déc. 2019

Note

Praise Lord. The bullish trend is strong as you can count the number of rising green candles. Those who did not long can wait for a slight pullback , roughly at 17.709.

9 janv. 2020

Note

Wow, some followers freaked out with the recent sell down. Is there a need to panic ?Let the chart decide your course of action.

Yes, 2 red candles selling down, probably means traders are taking profits, sellers are liquidating. On this 2nd point, note that not all sell to make profits. Yes, you can say that again. There are traders who had bought much earlier, say on 6 Sep and suffered for 3 over months with a loss of more than 2 dollars plus.

Now, seeing red in your portfolio is not fun at all. A little on psychology lesson here - red means hot means action . That is where many QSR have Red or Yellow colour as their theme or restaurant decor to entice the visitors' palette, to spend more basically.

So ,when you see red for 3 over months every single day, what does it say to you psychologically ? To some, they interpret it as being a loser, how can they be so dumb to catch at a high price. They may pretend it is not there but numbers do not lie. Staring at it daily or hourly only exacerbate the pain and the need to do something to alleviate it. So, when the price revisit the price that they bought in, they can't wait but sell it off, comforting themselves that they suffered minimal loss or a breakeven.

How do I know so well ? I was such an idiot before , haha.

And in this case, they are right, the price did falls further and may fall even further had they not liquidated their positions.

But from trend line perspective, nothing is to be done until the bullish trend line is broken down, i.e. price going below 17.74 (approximately).

And this also brings the point of having trailing stop loss. You may not maximise all your profits but it assured you that you have something warm and nice in your pocket when the price falls in this case.

Hope this helps.