Engaging my Buying order / Gold is Targeting #1,975.80

4 mars 2022

Gold's general commentary: As discussed, if Gold does not recover #1,952.80 in extension (Buying ever Low) within current Trading week borders, I am expecting Gold to finish the Monthly fractal below #1,850.80 psychological barrier. Needless to mention, that would be Bearish for Gold Long-term (aligns with my expectations). On an Intra-day basis the only Trading opportunity exists only within the Hourly 1 chart’s Weekly Top’s, as I don’t see why I should allow additional risk of Buying Gold throughout Low Volume sessions such as December #24 - December #25. The Daily chart’s timeframe has stabilized Technically near Neutral territory after #2 successive candle closings near the one of the MA’s. As long as Gold holds yesterday's session Low’s, the Price-action is more likely to rebound towards #1,952.80 (former Resistance) and above, especially if the reports continue to exceed expectations (despite hawkish stance from Powell) and this is why today's session Non-farm Payrolls announcement is critical. A break below #1,927.80 Support has a downside risk on the #1,916.80 Support. It is quite odd that Gold isn't Higher based on the Bearish patterns on the Bond Yields but it appears that DX’s strength weighed more. No Trading outside of this.


Technical analysis: Gold has broken above the Hourly 4 chart's #1,942.80 semi-Resistance once again turning the market sentiment to Bullish regarding the Short-term. Based on my model, current developments are due to the DX soaring on every Hourly candle, which is being aggressively Bought due to the pullback on Russian Ruble (currently Trading on record Low's). Remember to keep in mind that in similar times of corrections/ pullbacks, investors tend to Buy the U.S. Dollar as a safe-haven (as it happened in early March #2020), which has in turn a negative reaction on Gold regarding Short-term (they are negatively correlated, and that's why Traders witness Bearish Intra-day spikes in form of a correction). Adding to the model that #2-week rejection was just below the Daily chart's #1,975.80, confirms the fact that if #1,952.80 breaks, Buyers may arise and push the Price-action towards #1,975.80. But that largely depends upon the macro-fundamentals on the calendar.


My position: I have placed my Buying order with #1,940.80 as an entry point, Targeting #1,952.80 first, and if broken, #1,975.80 in extension. I added strict Risk management as NFP announcement is just few hours away. However, I do not expect NFP to change or alter the Bullish sentiment (will certainly add aggressive spikes), but only within my model. Keep in mind that previous #2 NFP announcements, Gold had less or no impact. #1,927.80 rejection represents re-Buy zone.