Technical Analysis of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) - 1H Chart (Heikin Ash

10 déc. 2024

The chart depicts a recent breakout above consolidation, with price now trading near $2,665, slightly below a key resistance zone. The liquidity void near $2,662–$2,713 and prior accumulation near supports indicate a potential continuation or reversal scenario. Below is a detailed analysis with probable bullish and bearish scenarios.

Key Observations
Trend Overview:

Price has broken out of a consolidation phase, rallying toward the $2,665 level.
The liquidity void around $2,662–$2,713 represents unfilled orders, making this zone a potential resistance area.
Support Levels:

$2,624–$2,626: Immediate support zone, previously held during the consolidation phase.
$2,613–$2,615: Secondary support zone and the breakout origin.
$2,595–$2,600: Strong demand zone where buyers aggressively stepped in earlier.
Resistance Levels:

$2,662–$2,665: Immediate resistance zone, where price is currently testing.
$2,711–$2,713: Major resistance zone aligned with unfilled orders in the liquidity void.
$2,740–$2,760: Extended resistance zone for bullish continuation.
Volume Analysis:

Buy Volume (2.69M) vs. Sell Volume (431.3K): Reflects dominant buying pressure, leading to the breakout.
Delta Volume (10%): Indicates increasing buy interest at higher levels.
Bullish Scenario
Conditions for a Bullish Move:

Price must break above the $2,665–$2,667 resistance zone, clearing the liquidity void.
Sustained buying pressure above $2,667 will likely drive the price toward higher resistance levels.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Buy near the current level ($2,662–$2,665), with a stop-loss below $2,655.
Conservative Entry: Enter after a breakout and retest above $2,667, with a stop-loss below $2,660.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,711 (key resistance zone).
Second Target: $2,740 (extended bullish target).
Final Target: $2,760 (major resistance).
Invalidation:

A breakdown below $2,655 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Bearish Scenario
Conditions for a Bearish Move:

Price fails to break above $2,665, indicating rejection at the resistance.
A confirmed breakdown below $2,655 would signal bearish momentum.
Entry Points:

Aggressive Entry: Short near $2,665, with a stop-loss above $2,670.
Conservative Entry: Enter short after a confirmed breakdown below $2,655, with a stop-loss above $2,662.
Exit Points (Take Profit):

First Target: $2,624–$2,626 (immediate support zone).
Second Target: $2,613 (breakout origin).
Final Target: $2,595 (extended bearish target).
Invalidation:

A breakout above $2,670 would invalidate the bearish scenario.
Key Indicators to Monitor
Volume Behavior:

Increasing buy volume above $2,662 confirms bullish strength.
Rising sell volume near $2,665 signals potential rejection.
Breakout/Breakdown Confirmation:

A breakout above $2,667 confirms bullish continuation.
A breakdown below $2,655 confirms bearish pressure.
Heikin Ashi Candles:

Sustained green candles with larger bodies signal continued buying.
Red reversal candles with long wicks at resistance confirm bearish rejection.
Summary of Probable Entry & Exit Points
Scenario Entry Zone Stop-Loss Target Levels
Bullish $2,662–$2,665 (Aggressive) or above $2,667 (Conservative) $2,655 $2,711, $2,740, $2,760
Bearish $2,665 (Aggressive) or below $2,655 (Conservative) $2,670 $2,626, $2,613, $2,595
Conclusion
Bullish Outlook: A breakout above $2,667 could lead to a rally toward $2,711 or higher.
Bearish Outlook: Rejection at $2,665 or a breakdown below $2,655 could trigger a decline toward $2,613–$2,595.
Monitor price action at the $2,662–$2,667 resistance zone and $2,655 support level for confirmation of the next move. Manage risk with tight stop-losses, especially in this breakout/reversal scenario.