Gold about to test #1,652.80 psychological mark

13 oct. 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold was close to the important #1,660.80 Hourly 1 chart’s Support test as the Price-action was rejected on #1,660.80 - #1,662.80 configuration, which shows how slow to reveal major move Gold has become (not taking Fundamental Selling pressure into account) as market sentiment didn’t even made a kick-start of full scale uptrend extension / even though that Bond Yields are still without recovery candles and DX counterbalancing the sequence, Trading near local High’s. If there wasn’t DX Resistance rejection developments (which is stalling the downtrend on Gold), Price-action would be significantly Lower. Gold should eventually honor the Resistance break on DX and deliver an Short-term Selling impulse which should be seen early on regarding U.S. session, reversing again despite Tuesday’s late session rise, Bond Yields are Trading near their Weekly (#1W) Weekly chart’s Support - reveals an Bullish Short-term sentiment Gold is Trading under and constant Bullish spikes are the product of it.


Technical analysis: Even though my Medium-term outlook remains Bearish based on fractal analysis of candles, Volume and RSI with the period March - April, I am expecting a Short-term uptrend continuation towards the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone first (#1,675.80 - #1,678.80) as the Hourly setting is sitting in near Oversold waters approaching the levels of December #27. I am looking closely at this week's U.S. data to monitor DX movements (conference was on main stage). Yet again, Triangle is emerging on Hourly 4 chart, and it is now a clash which side will prevail. Regarding the conference, statistic was Neutral as there were #7 negative surprises and #7 positive surprises in the previous #14 releases. On the other hand, Fed has been using Bond Yields program to keep Yields near their historical Low’s in fight against Inflation. DX again reversed (# +0.27%) and it's no surprise that it is pushing Gold Lower, Selling every High's towards #1,680.80 Support zone. No doubt that Gold is also affected by the effect of DX policy remarks, testing the #113.400 Resistance and correlation standpoint will be visible from today’s U.S. session. This tight balance keeps the Hourly 1 chart’s Descending Channel valid in High Volatility belt as I am keeping #1,670.80 as last Lower High's. I have noted that Gold Traders will witness this Volatility until market picks a side and then, by my estimations, I expect further takedown followed by Lower Low's test, as Gold always gives #2 additional Lower Low’s and only then prints an healthy rebound.


My position: My analysis is based on Spot prices as I can note with certainty that current Gold moves that Traders are witnessing are sign how unstable all market classes has become. While the threat of further Buying on the Hourly 4 timeframe is still there (however chances are slim almost equal to zero), Swing Traders may be interested in Selling from near #1,678.80 Hourly 4 chart configuration. A decisive Hourly 4 chart’s Ultimate Top could be on the cards (entry / risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the variance allows), aligning with Daily fluctuation which should slide Gold Lower from noted Supply-Demand zone, and if U.S. session opens with negative fashion, it has #1,652.80 test ahead on the cards (extended from the previous Low) with candle sequence ready to push the Price-action even Lower (my estimations show even #1,600.80 mark test). I have closed my Short-term order (#1,670.80 entry point) since it didn't delivered any significant results, however I have re-engaged the same order few moments ago (again #1,670.80 as an entry point), with my both Short and Medium-term Selling orders Targeting #1,652.80 mark, then #1,633.80 Support in extension.