Gold is Targeting #1,952.80 and #1,975.80 session High's peak

25 févr. 2022

Gold's general commentary: Yesterday’s session huge green Daily candlestick pattern was an indication of increased tension and war / conflict escalation negativity as geopolitical tensions arise which invalidated Sellers intent and comforted Short and Medium-term Gold’s Buyers early on. Gold was once again on High demand as Investors used the metal as an traditional safe-haven asset where capital strongly flew into Gold, pushing the Price-action way above the #13-Month High’s (#1,952.80). Gold was testing #1,975.80 (yesterday's session High’s) and as (by my personal opinion) DX skyrocketed and engaged Short-term Buy-off rally (due Investors and global citizens executing the currency exchange of Russian Ruble (Trading on record Low’s) to U.S. Dollar), Selling pressure from DX (Dollar) de-escalated Gold towards June #1 High’s again (currently even Lower) and currently it is the question where market will be headed next, most likely another Buying rally.


Fundamental analysis: Gold was on hard Resistance levels and current consolidation levels (historical regression analysis) points that when Trading for Long on those levels, strong downside direction comes in form of #100 point + decline. Besides this, nothing else Supports the upward argument (except current High Impact factor) since all Charts turned critically Bearish on Short-term. #1,952.80 is now new / old Resistance and by my calculation chances for breaking it again without new news are Technically really impossible (too far fetched and without catalyst to take the Price-action towards those / current High’s). Investor’s strategy was clear where Gold was expected to Trade on huge gains, heavily pressured on speculations fuelled by current Russia’s invasion. If I accept the similarities on past conflict events (U.S. - Iran / as Gold always reacts in similar manner to various developments), then I am looking for a rebound towards #1,917.80 again but not before a red Weekly candle (occurring at the moment). The Short-term Bearish bias (much needed correction) calls for strong consolidation. Less Volatility on Hourly 4 chart guarantees clear direction on the next Daily candle (possibly mixed values regarding the trend #50% / #50%, as absence of further war news and speculations may engage the steep correction on Gold).


Technical analysis: Day Traders have no other alternative with such distorted indicators than to look at (#30m) Bollinger bands which give a range of #1,917.80 as an maximum on this Bullish leap, limiting the downtrend aswell to current Price-action. I will be looking to Buy the dips and Sell the spikes that Gold delivers. I will go along and consult distorted Technical data, carefully monitor Gold’s movements (side-swings) until the dust is settled. The Price-action exceeded my estimated maximum High range (Higher High’s peak). This is an unexpected parameter, which I will have to incorporate to my optimal estimates however (tolerance until #1,917.80). If the equity crash continues, the more capital will be transferred to Gold's safe-haven but I don’t think that Gold will rise more than #1,952.80 anymore (at least for current cycle), however if new High impact news arrive and hit the market, I will be looking to Buy Gold towards #1,952.80. Technically however it is evident how every green Daily candle was Sold Intra-day (steep Descending Channel).


My position: Even though Technically Gold should continue yesterday's session Intra-day correction, however, as long as Fundamental pressure (war news) are present on the markets, Technical rules don't apply where Selling is postponed for more than #3 sessions. If I decide to Trade this (of course followed with new news of crisis escalation), #1,917.80 would be my entry point, where I will be ready to Buy Gold on spot pursuing #1,952.80 extension (former #13-Month High's) with my Buying order.