In early trading on Monday, spot gold suddenly fell rapidly in the short term. The price of gold plummeted by nearly $15 from a level near $2,337/ounce, and currently hit a low of $2,319.82/ounce, setting a new intraday low. A piece of heavyweight news came from Israel, which further cooled the market's risk appetite, thus hitting the gold price trend. This week will usher in the U.S. April ISM Manufacturing PMI, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, the April employment report, and the April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The market initially expected the first U.S. interest rate cut to be in March. However, as the United States has successively released strong economic data, expectations have been postponed first to June and now to September.
This Wednesday will usher in the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for April and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. . The Fed is unlikely to provide any new hints on the timing of a policy shift in its statement. However, at the press conference after the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to be asked whether there is still the possibility of a rate cut in June if Powell does not close the door to a rate cut in June. The initial reaction could trigger a sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields and boost gold. After the March policy meeting, Powell noted that strong inflation data in January and February could be due to seasonal factors. Market participants will also be closely watching Powell's comments on the inflation outlook. If Powell adopts a concerned tone on recent inflation developments, the dollar could remain resilient against its rivals, limiting gold's upside. Finally, if Powell downplays the disappointing first-quarter GDP data, investors may view this as a hawkish tone, making it difficult for gold to gain upward momentum.
Strategy 1: Gold rebounds near 2337-2340 and goes short (buy down) in batches. The target is around 2330-2325. If the position is broken, look at the 2300 line.
Strategy 2: Gold will go long in batches around 2315-2320 (buy up), target around 2340-2345, and look at the 2050 line if the position is broken.