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BINARY FORECASTING SERVICE - UNPROVEN TRIPPLE TOP

Intro - We have the BEGINNINGS of a unproven intermediate triple top pattern.

Details - Because of the spiral that makes this top so "circular", trend engine thinks this is signalling an incoming triple top. This is working draft, once it's ready I will send it.

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12:16 PM, CAN'T PROVE IT AND CAN'T DISPROVE IT.
1) but overall trend and pattern agrees on 55 first so this pattern should work until 2355
2) and then we go from there

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12:40 PM 82.24 HOLD ON

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12:54 PM TOO EARLY

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1:00 PM THIS POST HAS ENDED BC I GOT NOTHING RIGHT NOW
1) the binary didn't produce a long in the next 8 hours
2) so I assumed the circular would stick
3) this is not true
4) why?
5) bc sideways odds are really strong
6 for the next 8 hours
7) which means top SHOULD BE IN
8) BUT THE ROLLOVER HAS TO BE SLOWER
9) which means
8) no long or short for 8 hours

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1:30 PM
1) does that mean you can go long to 90?
2) yes but it's at 81-ish now
3) at the START of sideways zigzag range of 9 points of which
4) ... it's in the middle of
5) so there's 5 points of vol if you nail the move now...
6) wait until to night to scalp long at 75ish so that move is worth 15+

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1:42, I hate this part
1) we are 5/16
2) the low has to come 5/30 to 6/02
3) and it's still NOT obvious that the rally should be over
4) the only that's really obvious is maximum of one more top at 2440 or less
5) this is because at 2390 top
6) we don't really know if that's a top
7) so we know it's sideways, then move for 90+, that's it

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8) because of this extra move
9) the circular top doesn't count as its own top
10) but part of a wider top, IF true...
11) so once again NO IDEA IS BETTER THAN A BAD IDEA

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1:52 CANCEL ALL OF THAT TOO.

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2:29 PM ET, this should've been obvious way to handle it:

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1) so it's 78.50 right now
2) if and when red line breaks
3) price will move for 92+
4) at 8:30 Friday before NY open
5) is the decision for 2324 or 2262
6) that is ALL I CAN SAY AND NOT WORRY ABOUT IT

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7) and one more thing
8) the ceiling for that one top at 2440 is an estimate
9) and not a great one
10) a good estimate would be 2465

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THIS POST IS DONE. HERE'S IS THE BINARY FOR NOW:

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8:31 PM -- 2378.13
1) now we can consider this circular top as the 2nd of a triple top
2) what's the difference?
3) took too much time to move up
4) and the curves at top turned down
5) making it HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO pull off the move now..

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6) 8:35 first target now is 71

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7) the difference vs the move from earlier where it moves to 65 and spike up...
8) this time it moves to 71 slower....
9) the setup for the spike is gone ...
10) it can only continue sideways down
11) but let's get to 71 first

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12) 8:41, so the base case is:

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13) so whereas, 65 an hour ago would've caused a spike to 2405
14) a drip to 65 by 8:30 tomorow or basically 12 hours from now
15) won't cause a response until 12 hours out ....
16) by that time, bull hard spike setup is ancient history

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17) so) at 8:44 and 2377.xx it's a slow short to 64 next 12 hours
18) in-between bounce at 71

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19) 10;12 and 2376.93, once again, it's "slow AF" but its coming down
20) I don't see bounce at 71 though
21) or if there is, not a big deal
22) I see bounce at 66-67
23 but lets see how fast bc it's SLOW AF

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24) 79.8, STOP IS 80

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25) the last area they can come back
26) to swing hard up
27) it's 10:26 PM right now, stupid thing is about to hit

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28) 10:28 80.44 .. this is so late
29) but it's not im possible to make that hard spike to 2397
30) if you want, it's long stop 78.5

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31) 10:32, 2380.46, but it's just so late, I don't know

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32) or do nothing
33) and wait for a move in either direction first
34) which is what you'res supposed to do
35) but we did do that
36) it's just moving higher than we want as a retrace for this spot
37) bc it's within reason to spike hard still

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5/16, 10:41 PM ET, 2379.63, MOMENT OF TRUTH
1) here it is
2) bulls last chance for one more high

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3) they have to do it now
4) fail here and its over

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5) I doubled shorts stop 80.5

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6) covered half 74.5 so it paid for the first time

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7) letting the other one run tp, 68

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11:02 PM
8) my tp is 68 bc I expect it to hit 66-67 and bounce and eventually 64-65
9) hold on

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11:38 PM ET ok to summarize where we at now, and it 76.55
1) we know intermediate top is in
2) we are rolling over to 05/31-06/03 low
3) which is now 2233 and rising
4) what we don't know is what it should look like
5) because if you play chart at top
6) WE ARE LATE FOR THE WIDE TRIPLE TOP
7) which means one of two things
8) either we have an uneven triple top (as an intermediate top)
9) meaning the right top is higher than the left top (but lower than the middle top)
10) OR ... we have quad top rolling over like this:

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11) how do we know that?
12) bc price is too strong for regular triple top to take it down
13) it needs for more "rolling" or sideways to down tops
14) usually these things have 2 but having more - in this area -
15) ahead May 31 to June 3 is a sign of strength
16) since WE ONLY HAVE SO MANY DAYS ahead of 06/05 ADP, 06/07 NFP, AND O6/12 FOMC
17) that means the may-june floor
a) which was 2222 if 2377 held
b) moved to 2233 if 2393 held
c) would have to move up again if we do a quad top, to 2248

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18) meanwhile from here to Monday:

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19) in chart above, on the left is the example of the angle of the drop, so:
a) this time, much more shallow
b) so will end earlier around 58-62 ON MONDAY MORNING
c) that small spike in the middle is tomorrow 8:30 AM even time
d) should be a decent bump from 66-74
e) Friday floor is 64-65, Monday AM turns up from 58-62
f) SO NOT A LOT HAPPENING

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g) the important thing is, see the up trend lines we just broke tonight?
h) from 81 to 74 isn't much
i) but it broke two stacking ascending trend lines since 2278
j) so the top is in, and trend maps from various angles agree

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5/16, 12:17 AM ET
k) so the final route to 7/05 2620 is, after we go to 2360...
l) 2397 again, 2248, then 2620
m) I'm going to finalize that 50 day chart now
n) bc we've check EVERY SINGLE BOX LEFT
o) if you are in my private group I'll send it tonight
p) it should get there in 3-4 hours for everybody
q) that's seems to be what happens if I send it all at once

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12:47 AM SENT FINAL INTERMEDIATE 50 DAY DRAFT
1) for whatever reasons, it's been taking 4 hours for everyone to get it
2) it's a 50-day draft, you're not going to need it until 5/22 at the earliest
3) if you don't have it tomorrow let me know
4) on a side note, Sandeep, that vama address only works sometimes

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1:17 79.xx there's not that much value from here to Monday's 58-62
1) and the zig zag's going to be moderate like this
2) so either bump that stop a bit
3) or scalp every 4-5 points

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4) 1:23, 80.43, so here is some minor differences
5)

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6) in chart above, it' 80.xx right now, to make this work stop can't be that tight
7) so the 2way vol is just going to make this a scalp situation
8) otherwise stop at 83 to make it to 68 is not great r/r for me
9) I"m lights out will add notes in the AM

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2:02 AM ET 81.5
1) tried to get fill for 83.5, but it did not hit , so I'm light sout
2) the 50-day chart is there, you should have it now
3) now look at chart above
4) this area Fri to next Wed, is not very sharp
5) I have conviction top is in or close to it
6 I don't have conviction in what these four days are supposed to look like
7) as in this part:

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8) I just don't know where this move to 85 now is supposed to go?
9) too late to be break out
10) all it's doing is making this area complicated
11) instead of two tops in the middle
12) I don't know what we get here

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13) it's just going to be ugly
14) it's not going to be clean and obvious
15) I'm going to bed I'll deal with this area in the morning
16 it looks like their middle is quad top
17) that's really had to understand

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THIS POST HAS ENDED.
2:44 AM, I'll post last notes in the 50 -day draft.

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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