GOLD corrects in 2 days, still has bullish conditions next week

il y a 4 jours

XAUUSD fell as the USD held steady at its highest level in more than 2 weeks. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve will still cut interest rates next week and gold prices still have conditions for a possible increase in price.

XAUUSD has broken multiple record highs this year, supported by Fed monetary policy, strong central bank buying and safe-haven demand.
Traders currently assess a 96% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its December 17-18 meeting.

Focus will also be on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments as market participants analyze US monetary policy in 2025, especially given President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans , is very likely to add to inflation.
Central banks often keep interest rates high to curb inflation, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding unprofitable gold.

Pay special attention to the upcoming Fed interest rate decision
The Fed's monetary policy statement next week could be the last major impact for gold this year outside of unforeseen geopolitical surprises.
Next Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision after a two-day policy meeting. The Fed is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25%-4.5%. The Fed will also release a revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), known as a Dotplot chart.
In September, SEP showed that Fed officials' median forecast for the policy rate at the end of 2025 was 3.4%. If the 2025 interest rate forecast is revised downward, i.e. cutting interest rates by more than 100 basis points, it could have a direct negative impact on the Dollar and this would push gold prices higher.
Markets will also be closely watching comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. If Powell takes a cautious approach to further policy easing, emphasizing a gradual approach, the dollar is likely to remain strong as it remains supported by President-elect Donald Trump. On the other hand, the US Dollar will come under selling pressure if Powell expresses growing concerns about the cooling labor market and its potential negative impact on the growth outlook.

Data next week
Next Thursday, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the final revised data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter, and next Friday will release the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE).

The economic calendar needs attention next week
Monday: Empire State manufacturing survey, S&P flash PMI
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve monetary policy decision
Thursday: Bank of England monetary policy decision; US weekly unemployment claims;
US Q3 GDP, Philly Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey, Existing Home Sales
Friday: Personal consumption expenditure index (PCE)

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold closed the week in a crucial position for upside as it still has bullish conditions.
Specifically, the daily chart still shows that gold prices maintain activity above EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,644 USD. Note to readers in the previous edition. In addition, the Relative Strength Index decreased but stayed above 50, which does not show any negative signals.

In the near term, if gold brings price activity back above the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, it will have the conditions to recover more to the $2,676 level in the short term, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci level and the original price point. 2,700 USD.

Overall, gold still has a bullish outlook. However, a negative situation is likely to appear once gold breaks below the 0.618% Fibonacci level because it will tend to retest the 0.786% Fibonacci level with a price point of 2,591USD. Therefore, open long positions will need to be protected when this situation occurs.

In the coming time, the technical chart of gold prices will be noticed by some notable patterns as follows.
Support: 2,644 – 2,634USD
Resistance: 2,663 – 2,676 – 2,693USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2680 - 2678⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2684

→Take Profit 1 2673
↨
→Take Profit 2 2668

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2621 - 2623⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2617

→Take Profit 1 2628
↨
→Take Profit 2 2633

il y a 4 jours

Note

Gold prices are expected to continue to retain their position as a safe-haven asset in 2025, as rising geopolitical and economic uncertainties, along with strong buying demand from central banks, are expected to continue. Expected to support prices

il y a 4 jours

Note

Preliminary PMI for the United States:
- Preliminary services PMI: 58.5 (Forecast: 55.7; Previous: 56.1)
- Preliminary manufacturing PMI: 48.3 (Forecast: 49.4; Previous: 49.7)
- Composite PMI: 56.6, previous: 54.9

il y a 3 jours

Note

🔴Gold is currently under greater pressure.
Some of the most important recent factors are:
1. Wall Street expects the FED to give a "hawkish" signal;
2. Trump "talks" to Zelensky: Ready to reach an agreement to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine;
3. Israel claims that it has “never come close to an agreement” on the hostage issue in Gaza.

avant-hier

Note

World gold prices fell in the trading session on Tuesday (December 17) after better-than-forecast US retail sales data increased the possibility that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may reduce interest rates less than expected. expectations in 2025. The USD exchange rate and US Treasury bond yields simultaneously increased after this report, also putting pressure on precious metals to depreciate.

il y a 20 heures

Note

Gold is under pressure to fall below the threshold of 2,600 USD. Rising US government bond yields and the rise of the USD have hindered gold's ability to recover, increasing downward price pressure. The Fed's tightening stance and positive economic data continue to strengthen the USD, putting pressure on the gold market. This trend shows that gold's short-term recovery prospects will be limited.