BTC Testing Channel Trendline - Two Possible Short Term Outcomes
Friends,
To recap - we discussed the April 12 candle pushing the price from 6900 to 7900 without a hiccup, and the problems that would cause in future price action; we seem to be in this zone now, though we began the price finding between 6900 and 7900 back on May 23 2018. Now, as BTC tries to find footing around 7600 - significant because of the support that should keep price in the trend wedge, also significant because an upward move out of this zone could signify the end of the problems still stemming from the April 12 candle.
The bear case, short term, which is the most likely scenario in my view, is that price heads down toward 7k for a final test of the 6800-7100 zone before FINALLY making moves toward 8k and higher - the time this takes will make the 200 EMA a little less lofty a goal for price action, which I think is holding up any bull move for the time being.
If, though, the price holds at 7600 and continues to move upward toward the EMA lines while filling the wedge, the price will test the 8400-8600 zone - which is the top of the wedge and a historically violent price zone - before months end. I think that's a more difficult mountain to climb in terms of success leading to a bull run that's sustainable.
For now, I'm bearish - but if you have another idea, let me know!
To recap - we discussed the April 12 candle pushing the price from 6900 to 7900 without a hiccup, and the problems that would cause in future price action; we seem to be in this zone now, though we began the price finding between 6900 and 7900 back on May 23 2018. Now, as BTC tries to find footing around 7600 - significant because of the support that should keep price in the trend wedge, also significant because an upward move out of this zone could signify the end of the problems still stemming from the April 12 candle.
The bear case, short term, which is the most likely scenario in my view, is that price heads down toward 7k for a final test of the 6800-7100 zone before FINALLY making moves toward 8k and higher - the time this takes will make the 200 EMA a little less lofty a goal for price action, which I think is holding up any bull move for the time being.
If, though, the price holds at 7600 and continues to move upward toward the EMA lines while filling the wedge, the price will test the 8400-8600 zone - which is the top of the wedge and a historically violent price zone - before months end. I think that's a more difficult mountain to climb in terms of success leading to a bull run that's sustainable.
For now, I'm bearish - but if you have another idea, let me know!