Long

XMR bottomed

Mis à jour

I see a clear bottom for monero in the 0.006 range, where the first wave of the last bull run bottomed.
Monero has clearly double bottomoed in this area, and as predictable it is going upwards.
MAIN THREAT:
BTC running too quick. I do know btc trend is upwards but we have already seen huge alt-pumps while btc in a strong uptred (ie. eth reaching 20$ at @0.028BTC while btc was living a strong bull trend caused by halving hype)
MAIN FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT:
RingCT and GUI wallet are at last about to be deployed.
Privacy and fungibiliyy are really needed. Coinbase keeps blocking bitcoin users accounts due to fungibility problems np.reddit.com/r/RCSources/comments/5bp5ae/how_bad_did_i_mess_up/
Zcash proved to be a perfect set up so some miners made a quick buck, this together with the "trusted" set-up involving so little people gives xmr room to grow without worrying about this blockchain.

MY TRADE:
XMR long base price 0.00613
MARGIN USED: 1.5x
1st TARGET: 0.009 - 30% of position -- REACHED
2nd TARGET 0.012 - 40% of initial position
3rd TARGET 0.018 - 20% of initial position
4th/ultimate TARGET 0.022 - 10% of initial position

TOTAL PROFIT IF EVERYTHING GOES AS PLANED: 210% -- 315% after margin

INVALIDATION OF TRADE/TREND:
1. 0.0078 Broken with volume and not being rejected
2. 1 week consolidation and neither 0.0092 nor 0.0078 broken
3. BTC breaking with strenth local high (~760$)

Transaction en cours

[img]s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/i/IaCx4418.png[/img]
Bull flag in 4h

Transaction en cours

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/i/IaCx4418.png
Noob mistake lol
Now this is, a possible bull flag pattern in 4h chart.

Note

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/i/IaCx4418.png

Note

[img]

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Transaction en cours

Sadly i did not reach target 2 by 1-2%, still my long has a stupidly low base price and is deep in green.
BTC broke local high in china, though the fomo did not cross the world to usa or europe, and the uptrend did not break local high neither in bitfinex nor in bitstamp.
I still trust this pattern, while btc is under local high in europe.
Here's an other trader prediction for xmr after todays dump.

Transaction en cours

Target 2 reached.
70% of position already closed.
If price plummets again under 0.01 i'm probably reloading some bits of my long.

Readjusting remaining targets slightly

3rd TARGET 0.015 - 10% of initial position
4th TARGET 0.018 - 10% of initial position
5th/ultimate TARGET 0.022 - 10% of initial position

Note

Rebought last sale in the 0.01 range.

Targets revision:

1. 0.009 - 30% of intial position --- REACHED
----------------------------------------- 21% ROI

2. 0.012 - 40% of initial position -- REACHED
------RELOADED at 0.01 same size and same target
----------------------------------------- 21%+12%=33% ROI

3. 0.015 - 10% of initial position

4. 0.018 - 10% of intial position

5. 0.022 - 10% of intial position

Note

Target 2 reached again.
Target 3 reached.

Note

Selling Targets revision:

1. 0.009 - 30% of initial position -- REACHED
---------------------------------------- 21% ROI
2. 0.012 - 40% of initial position -- REACHED x2
---------------------------------------- 21+69= 90% ROI
3. 0.015 - 10% of intiial position -- REACHED
---------------------------------------- 90+22= 112% ROI
4. 0.018 - 10% of intiial position
5. 0.022 - 10% of intiial position

Buying Targets:
1. 0.014 - 5% of intiial position
2. 0.012 - 5% of intiial position
3. 0.011 - 10% of intiial position
4. 0.01 - 10% of intiial position

Note

Monero could go bubble as per fractals analysis.
I hold a heavy bag of Monero besides my longs, i recommend you do it.

I dont want to say XMR could be the next BTC, as that usually dooms any project, but i really trust in Monero fundamentals long term.

1. Ring Signatures - To simplify it, similar to a bitcoin mixer but included in protocol and used "by default". This contributes to make A LOT harder blockchain analysis, as you can know a group of users sent a total amount of Monero, but you cannot know how much each sent and to who did it (this is combined with fractioning transactions amounts and adding "fake" inputs and outputs to the "group signature" to discourage sybil attacks.
Bytecoin was first crypto including this, and Monero was the second one and the first legit one doing it. Plus its devs have gained wide experience through these years.
Bitcoin might add it (and Litecoin will), though i dont think it is plausible as Bitcoin clearly chose the "transparecy" path, whic is great and has load of use cases, but is not the Monero project goal.
2. Stealth Addresses. CryptoNote generates a new address for each transaction, so you cannot easily link a user with all his transactions.
This is already possible in bitcoin (with compatible clients) but once again, privacy is not bitcoin goal. And any optional privacy feature is a no-go, as if it is optional, you will be marked as suspicious because of using it.
3. Minimum subsisidy for miners. Without rewards, proof of work is not possible. That is to say, you either have block rewards for miners (token inflation) or you risk to scaling fees in transactions (risking to not being competitive to other transaction methods).
To solve this Monero has a "tail emission" or minimum subsisdy, that avoids block reward to keep going down till reaching 0 inflation or microscopic inflation. This will kick around 2022 and will keep Monero inflation at a REALLY SLOWLY decreasing rate under 1%.
4. Different scaling issues. Monero will surely have scaling problems, specially due to ring signatures being big, but in its protocol Monero allows an steady and organic adaptability (no hard limits in blocksize) and we all know how this problem affected bitcoin: 3 years of discussion and not even near of consensus.
5. Reduced inflation. Monero had a pretty quick emission curve, but that has a positive side effect: reaching acceptable inflation rates pretty soon.
YEAR----------------YEARLY INFLATION
2015----------------65,80%
2016----------------25,68%
2017----------------12,87%
2018----------------7,07%
2019----------------4,06%
2020----------------2,38%
2021----------------1,42%
2022----------------0,91%
Less inflation means smaller sell pressure from miners. 2016, with an anualized inflation of ~25% was a great bull year for Monero, and placed it in the eye of thousands of crypto-enthusiasts, traders&speculators, and what is the most important: DARKNET MARKETS.
6.DarkNet Marketers adoption: With smaller inflation (12% per year is already acceptable), GUI wallet, Ring Confidential Transactions and bigger and bigger market liquidity, surely Monero will threaten Bitcoin's place in the DarkNet Markets. As bitcoin has proven to be a faucet of information that can be used by govs.

And this is it. Dare to comment? What is your opinion?

Note

Check this:
XMRBTC daily chart vs BTCUSD weekly chart.
It seems as if XMR is having same history as bitcoin, but speeded up x7

Note

Monero is now also in Kraken
blog.kraken.com/post/155126375697/kraken-launches-monero-trading

So every major western exchange is trading Monero (Bitfinex, Kraken, Poloniex), just Coinbase (that wont probable EVER add it) and chinese major exchanges left.

Good news for our trade, the more markets, easier is to buy the coin, so if there is a demand, price should go upwards.

I expect 0.018-0.019 shortly, supported in kraken addition (fundamental) and a clear bull flag just breaking out (technichal)

Note

Last week i reloaded my long in two points:
0.012 - 5% reloaded
0.014 - 5% reloaded
This are the bits i closed one week ago at 0.015.

Now i've just closed this 10% at 0.0162

I dont know why my math suck, but the profits i talked about a few comments ago are all messed up.
This time i've re-calculated the numbers 2 times to be sure i get the same final answer.

So far i've tied a 75% net profit WITHOUT margin.
As i am using x1.5 margin, i've tied so far over a whopping 110% NET profit.

If i fully close my trade (only 20% of original position remaining) i would pocket a total net profit over 160%, though i am not doing it still.

Currently i am reseting my buying points:

-5% at 0.014
-5% at 0.013
-5% at 0.012
-10% at 0.011
-10% at 0.01

And i keep the same remaining targets:
-0.018 10% of initial position
-0.022 10% of initial position

Note

Potential Monero play out.

tradingview.com/chart/uIEXsVvI/

We already got filled that 5% buy order at 0.014.
Now i'm readjusting my buying targets:
0.01285 - 15%
0.01155 - 15%

So old buying targets (0.013/0.012/0.011/0.01 for 5/5/10/10%) are no longer valid.

Note

Wrong link. Here it is the potential play out i was talking about.

Note

long reloaded and bull div signaling a movement soon

Note

It was a long journy guys. but we are doing it.
Target 4th reached, and only ultimate target left.
It was longer than expected, but profits are mad. Thanks for the company :D

Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte

All targets were reached.
Total NET profit 177%.
New Monero trade:

bagofXMR

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