Ripple SEC Case Enters Final Round: What’s Next for XRP?

24 sept.

The long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is entering its final phase, with the crypto community eagerly awaiting a conclusion. The lawsuit, which has kept XRP investors on edge, is now at a critical juncture as experts predict a 75% chance of an SEC appeal, potentially extending the case further and adding complexity to Ripple’s regulatory journey.

Ripple SEC Case: A Brief Recap
For nearly three years, Ripple (XRP) has been entangled in one of the most high-profile legal cases in the cryptocurrency space. The SEC initially accused Ripple of conducting an unregistered securities offering, alleging that XRP qualifies as a security. The stakes were high, with the SEC seeking a $2 billion penalty. However, the recent ruling by Judge Torres ordered Ripple to pay $125 million — a far lower amount than expected — which many viewed as a partial victory for Ripple.

Despite this ruling, the case is far from over. Speculation is rife that the SEC may file an appeal, challenging portions of the ruling related to institutional sales, while Ripple could counter-appeal the court’s decision on secondary market sales. According to ex-SEC lawyer James Farrell, there’s a 75% chance the SEC will appeal the liability portion of the lawsuit, a move that could delay final resolution by several months or even years.

Potential Outcomes of an Appeal
If the SEC proceeds with its appeal, it could significantly impact XRP’s regulatory status and broader implications for the cryptocurrency market. XRP has been at the center of debates around whether cryptocurrencies should be treated as securities, and the case’s outcome could set a precedent for future regulatory decisions in the U.S.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty have been vocal in downplaying concerns about extending the legal battle, reassuring the community that Ripple does not intend to prolong the case unnecessarily. However, should the SEC move forward, Ripple could be forced to mount a cross-appeal, challenging the court’s decision on institutional sales and transactions related to its On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) platform.

Notably, some legal experts, such as Fred Rispoli, have raised questions about whether Ripple would be entitled to statutory interest if it wins the appeal. This could potentially force the SEC to return the $125 million penalty, plus interest, significantly altering the financial implications of the case. Rispoli also suggested that the SEC might need to cover Ripple’s appeal costs if it loses, further complicating the regulatory body’s position.

XRP’s Market Performance and Sentiment
While legal battles continue to cast a shadow over XRP, the asset has shown signs of resilience. As of writing, XRP is trading at $0.5866, up 0.89% on the day, with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 56, signaling a potential bullish reversal. Despite XRP’s recent muted price action, the broader altcoin market, including coins like SUI, has performed well, indicating a renewed appetite for risk among investors.

XRP’s futures open interest has also risen by 1%, suggesting that market participants remain cautiously optimistic about the token’s short-term prospects. However, its trading volume has seen a slight dip, down 11% to $928.86 million, indicating that while interest in XRP remains strong, it is tempered by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Ripple-SEC case.

What’s Next for XRP?
The SEC’s deadline to file an appeal is looming in October 2024, and the crypto market is bracing for potential volatility in the run-up to that date. Any decision by the SEC to appeal will almost certainly extend the lawsuit, adding further complexity to Ripple’s regulatory future. The case’s outcome will have far-reaching consequences, not only for Ripple and XRP but for the broader cryptocurrency market, as it could shape how U.S. regulators treat digital assets going forward.

For now, XRP investors are treading carefully, with market sentiment mixed but leaning toward optimism. A positive outcome for Ripple could trigger a significant rally in XRP prices, while an extended legal battle may keep the token range-bound in the short term.

Conclusion
The Ripple-SEC lawsuit is nearing a critical point, with both sides preparing for what could be the final phase of legal proceedings. While the possibility of an appeal looms large, the crypto community remains cautiously optimistic about XRP’s future. Investors should stay tuned for key developments in October, as the case’s resolution will likely have profound implications for Ripple, XRP, and the broader digital asset market.