Expected Move by Option's Implied Volatility Symbols: B - CLF
This script plots boxes to reflect weekly, monthly and yearly expected moves based on "At The Money" put and call option's implied volatility.
Symbols in range: This script will display Expected Move data for Symbols within the range of B - CLF in alphabetical order.
Weekly Updates: Each weekend, the script is updated with fresh expected move data, a job that takes place every Saturday following the close of the markets on Friday.
In the provided script, several boxes are created and plotted on a price chart to represent the expected price moves for various timeframes.
These boxes serve as visual indicators to help traders and analysts understand the expected price volatility.
Definition of Expected Move: Expected Move refers to the anticipated range within which the price of an underlying asset is expected to move over a specific time frame, based on the current implied volatility of its options. Calculation: Expected Move is typically calculated by taking the current stock price and applying a multiple of the implied volatility. The most commonly used multiple is the one-standard-deviation move, which encompasses approximately 68% of potential price outcomes.
Example: Suppose a stock is trading at $100, and the implied volatility of its options is 20%. The one-standard-deviation expected move would be $100 * 0.20 = $20.
This suggests that there is a 68% probability that the stock's price will stay within a range of $80 to $120 over the specified time frame. Usage: Traders and investors use the expected move as a guideline for setting trading strategies and managing risk. It helps them gauge the potential price swings and make informed decisions about buying or selling options. There is a 68% chance that the underlying asset stock or ETF price will be within the boxed area at option expiry. The data on this script is updating weekly at the close of Friday, calculating the implied volatility for the week/month/year based on the "at the money" put and call options with the relevant expiry.
In summary, implied volatility reflects market expectations about future price volatility, especially in the context of options. Expected Move is a practical application of implied volatility, helping traders estimate the likely price range for an asset over a given period. Both concepts play a vital role in assessing risk and devising trading strategies in the options and stock markets.
By
Gridimus MaximusGridimus Maximus draws N grid lines stepping by price or percent in chosen direction from set price, or draws N grid lines stepping by pivots.
The queue function method used is adapted from an example provided on the PineCoders website, much gratitude to LucF for this gem!
To prevent grid lines out of range from causing chart to rescale right click on chart's price column and enable Scale Price Chart Only.
Pictured example above is using Type Of Increment: Steps By Pivot, Number Of Steps: 5.
Pictured example below is using Type Of Increment: Steps By Price, Number Of Steps: 6, Starts From Price: $10k, Steps By Percent Or Price: $10k.
Pictured example below is using Type Of Increment: Steps By Percent, Number Of Steps: 7, Starts From Price: $10k, Steps By Percent Or Price: 33%.
NOTICE: This is an example script and not meant to be used as an actual strategy. By using this script or any portion thereof, you acknowledge that you have read and understood that this is for research purposes only and I am not responsible for any financial losses you may incur by using this script!
Trend continuation factor, by M.H. PeeTrend continuation factor, by M.H. Pee
The related article is copyrighted material from Stocks & Commodities.
