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Trend-strategy

Triple ThreatThis indicator provides buy and sell signals for Bitcoin based on confluence from well-known momentum, volatility, and trend indicators. It has successfully captured the major directional trends on Bitcoin's daily chart since 2018, and the settings are currently optimized for this chart in particular. This indicator implements RSI to gauge momentum, BBWP to gauge volatility, and an EMA to gauge trend. Maximum confluence signals are represented by horizontal bars in the indicator's pane, where the tallest green bar is a confirmed buy signal, and the tallest red bar is a confirmed sell signal. The shortest bar represents a momentum-only signal, and the second-shortest bar represents a volatility signal in confluence with the previously given momentum signal. To track momentum, the RSI is plotted to the indicator plane against a moving average of the RSI. A momentum signal is generated when the RSI crosses over its moving average, retests/approaches the moving average, and then continues in the crossover direction (i.e., it fails to cross the moving average to the opposite side, creating a successful retest). The settings that affect this trigger are the "Crossover Threshold," which specifies how much the RSI should exceed the moving average to be considered a crossover, and the "Retest threshold," which specifies how closely the RSI should approach the moving average to be considered a retest. A momentum signal is ALSO generated if the RSI or its moving average exceed their counterpart by a certain threshold. For example, if the threshold was set at 10, a BUY signal would be generated when the RSI exceeds the moving average by 10, or a SELL signal would be generated when the moving average exceeds the RSI by 10. This threshold can be set using the "Instant Signal Threshold" setting. Either type of momentum signal will be plotted on the pane as the shortest horizontal bar, with its color indicating the signal's direction. Volatility is primarily measured using the Bollinger Band Width Percentile (BBWP) indicator, which was created by The_Caretaker. BBWP plots the volatility of the asset's price, given by Bollinger Band width, relative to past volatility by assigning the volatility readings into percentiles. The indicator also includes a moving average of the BBWP itself, where a crossover to the upside represents expanding volatility and a crossover to the downside represents contracting volatility. This indicator is used to confirm a signal given by the momentum indicators - a momentum signal that is given during a period of expanding volatility has a greater likelihood of success. Therefore, when the BBWP crosses above its moving average by a given threshold, a previously triggered momentum signal is considered to be "confirmed." The threshold for this crossover can be set using the "BBWP Confirmation Threshold" setting. However, it is also relevant that periods of extreme volatility often accompany an extremity in price action (a "top" or "bottom"), in which case the BBWP is likely to contract after price reaches such an extremity. This phenomenon is captured by also using "extreme reads" on the momentum indicator to signal that there has already been enough volatility to confirm a momentum signal. If the RSI gives an "extreme read" before triggering a signal, the momentum signal is also considered to be confirmed. For example, if the RSI is above 80, breaks below 80, and then gives a SELL signal, this sell signal is considered to be confirmed without requiring the BBWP to crossover its moving average to the upside. The threshold that would confirm a SELL signal can be set with the "Overbought" setting, and the threshold that would confirm a BUY signal can be set with the "Oversold" setting. Whenever a volatility signal confirms a momentum signal, a medium-sized horizontal bar will be plotted on the pane in the same directional color as the momentum signal. Note that a momentum signal may trigger at the exact same time as the volatility signal which confirms it; in this case, only the medium-sized bar will be visible on the pane, but its direction can still be identified by its color. Lastly, to reduce the likelihood of "false signals," a trend indicator is used to confirm the direction of the signal. This is typically an exponential moving average. If a confirmed volatility SELL signal is given, and the closing price is below the moving average, then the SELL signal is also confirmed by the trend. Likewise, if a confirmed volatility BUY signal is given, and the closing price is above the moving average, then the BUY signal is confirmed by the trend. The type and length of the moving average used to verify the trend can be set using the "Moving Average Type" and "Moving Average Length" settings found below the momentum/volatility settings. A trend signal is plotted on the pane as a tall horizontal bar, and is more deeply colored than the momentum and volatility signals. For maximum confluence, it is recommended that the trend signal, given by the tallest bar, is the one that forms the basis of trades executed while using the Triple Threat indicator. It is possible to enter more aggressive trades with better entries by using only the volatility signal, given by the medium-sized bar, however this entails greater risk and should only be done in confluence with an additional trading strategy of your own discretion. Backtesting has shown that using the volatility signal alone underperforms using the volatility signal in confluence with the trend signal. Please also be advised that the default setting are optimized for Bitcoin's daily chart only. The indicator is still applicable to other timeframes and asset classes, but the settings may need to be modified. I have a list of settings for other Bitcoin timeframes, and I would be happy to share them upon request. I hope you can find this indicator to be of some use to your trading strategies. I'd be happy to hear any feedback from the community, so please don't hesitate to reach out. Stay safe, and happy trading.
Stratégie Pine Script™
par alexjnelson
6
Swing VWAP Weekly Stock and Crypto StrategyThis is a simple yet very efficient swing strategy designed for crypto and stock market, using big timeframes. Its main component is VWAP weekly, so for best scenarios its better to use big timeframes such as 8h+. The rules for entry are simple: If our close if above vwap weekly we enter long . If our close is below vwap weekly we enter short. We exit from the trade, when a reverse condition than the entry one is triggered. Because this strategy has no risk management inside, I recommend to be careful with it. If you have any questions, let me know
Stratégie Pine Script™
par exlux
High/Low Channel Multi averages Crypto Swing strategyThis is a swing strategy designed for trending markets such as crypto and stock, with big timeframes , like 8h. For this strategy we take SMA, EMA, VWMA, ALMA, SMMA, LSMA and VWMA and make an apply them all to both HIGH and LOW separately and make 2 averages, 1 applied to high and the other applied to low. With them we make a channel. Rules for entry For long: close of a candle is above avg applied to high. For short: close of a candle is below avg applied to low. Rules for exit We exit when we either hit TP or SL or when we receive a different condition than the entry one.(long- > short and viceversa) If you have any questions, let me know !
Stratégie Pine Script™
par exlux
12
Pivot Reversal strategy long onlyPivot Point Reversal Strategy Pivot point reversal strategy is based on the first support level’s price action during the bullish trend and the first resistance level during the bearish trend . Traders follow the main trend and enter into the trade after reversal analyzing pivot point levels. This version is an upgraded version, combining the initial pivot point reversal strategy together with one of the most accuracy moving average in my opinion for day trade, the Least square moving average. At the same time I applied an option to backtest using a date range and a leverage calculator. The default options are optimized for BTC /USDT 2H charts, using 0.1% comission fee. If you have any questions, let me know
Stratégie Pine Script™
par exlux
72s: Adaptive Hull Moving Average+One challenging issue for beginner traders is to differentiate market conditions, whether or not the current market is giving best possibility to stack profits, as earliest, in shortest time possible, or not. On intraday, we've seen some big actions by big banks are somewhat can be defined --or circling around-- by HMA 200 . I've been thinking on to make the visuals more conform to price dynamics (separating major movement and minor noise) to get clearer signs of when it starts to happen. So it will be easier to see in a glance when the strength starts really taken place, with less cluttered chart. This Adaptive HMA is using the new Pine Script's feature which now support Dynamic Length arguments for several Pine functions. ( read: www.tradingview.com). It hasn't support the built-in HMA() directly, but thankfully we can use its wma() formula to construct. (Note: I tweaked a bit HMA formula already popular here by using plain int() instead of round() on its wma's length, since I find it precisely match tradingview's built-in HMA). You can choose which aspect the Adaptive HMA period will adapt to. In this study I present it with two options: Volume and Volatility . It will "moves" faster or slower depends on which situation the aspect is currently into. ie: When volume is generally low or volatile readings is not there, price won't move very much, so the adapting MA will slow down by dynamically lengthen the lookback period, and vice versa, and so on. Colour-markings in the Adaptive resembles which situation explained above. In addition, I also combine it with slope calculation of the MA to help measuring trend-strength or sideway/choppy conditions. This way when we use it as dynamic support/resistance it will be more visually-reliable. Secondly, and more important, it might help us traders with better probability info of whether or not a trade should even worth to be made . ie: If in the mean time market won't give much movement, any profit would also only as much. In most cases, we might better save our dime for later or place it somewhere else. HOW TO USE: Aside from better dynamic support/resistance and clearer breakout confirmation, MA is coloured as follow: YELLOW: Market is in consolidation or flat. Be it sideways, choppy, or in relatively small movements. If it shows up in a trending market, it may be an earlier sign that current trend might about to change its direction, or confirming a price broke-out to another side. LIGHT GREEN or LIGHT RED: Tells if a trend is forming but still relatively weak (or getting weaker), as it doesn't have volume or volatility to support. DARKER GREEN ot DARKER RED: This is where we can expect some good and strong price movement to ride. If it's strong enough, many times it marks a start of new long-lasting major trend. SETTINGS: Charger: Choose which aspect your HMA should plug itself into, thus it will adapt to it. Minimum Period, Maximum Period: 172 - 233 is just my own setting to outmatch the static HMA 200 for intraday. I find it --in my style of trading-- best in 15m tf in almost any pair, and 15m to 1H for some stocks. It also works nicely with conventional EMA 200, sometimes as if they somewhat work hand-in-hand in defining where the price should go. But you can, ofcourse, experiment with other ranges, broader or narrower. Especially if you already have an established strategy to follow to. As you might do with: Consolidation area threshold: This has to do with slope calculation. The bigger the number means your MA needs bigger degree to define the market is out of flat (yellow) area. This can be useful if needed to lighten up the filter or vice-versa. Background colouring: Just another colouring to help highlighting the difference in market conditions. ALERTS: There are two alerts: Volume Break: when volume is breaking up above average, and Volatility Meter: when the market more likely is about to have its moment of the big wiggling brush. USAGE: Very very nice BUY entry to catch big up-movement if: 1. Price is above MA. (It is best when price is also not to far distance from the MA, or you can also use distance oscillator to help out too) 2. HMA's color is in darker green. Means it's on the charging plug with your chosen aspect. 3. RSI is above 50. This is to help as additional confirmation. Clear SELL entry signal is same as above, just the opposite. ------------------------------------------------------- Note: Lower timeframe of course means more noise to be filtered. Depends on the instrument, you might need to tweak the settings a bit till it conform nicely and shows lots of good trades in history. Here's another example on GBPUSD 5m timeframe: For exit/take-profit point, you can use a second faster period static HMA. Or you can also use RSI. Here's an example: Don't get me wrong, on few occasions I found it's still best using static MA to spot fakeouts, breakouts, etc, especially ones that's been already use widely. If that's the case or price actions seems suspicious, simply put the same value for minimum and maximum period settings, and there you have the original HMA with extra features. For developer, check in the code if you need to customise your own charger. ------------------------------------------------------- That's it. Hopefully this Adaptive HMA+ could at least be a good sidekick to your own strategy, as it does mine. ;)
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Indicateur Pine Script™
par io72signals
141
Grid Like StrategyIt is possible to use progressive position sizing in order to recover from past losses, a well-known position sizing system being the "martingale", which consists of doubling your position size after a loss, this allows you to recover any previous losses in a losing streak + winning an extra. This system has seen a lot of attention from the trading community (mostly from beginners), and many strategies have been designed around the martingale, one of them being "grid trading strategies". While such strategies often shows promising results on paper, they are often subjects to many frictions during live trading that makes them totally unusable and dangerous to the trader. The motivations behind posting such a strategy isn't to glorify such systems, but rather to present the problems behind them, many users come to me with their ideas and glorious ways to make money, sometimes they present strategies using the martingale, and it is important to present the flaws of this methodology rather than blindly saying "you shouldn't use it". Strategy Settings Point determines the "grid" size and should be adjusted accordingly to the scale of the symbol you are applying the strategy to. Higher value would require larger price movements in order to trigger a trade, as such higher values will generate fewer trades. The order size determines the number of contracts/shares to purchase. The martingale multiplier determines the factor by which the position size is multiplied after a loss, using values higher to 2 will "squarify" your balance, while a value of 1 would use a constant position sizing. Finally, the anti-martingale parameter determines whether the strategy uses a reverse martingale or not, if set to true then the position size is multiplied after any wins. The Grid Grid strategies are commons and do not present huge problems until we use certain position sizing methods such as the martingale. A martingale is extremely sensitive to any kind of friction (frictional costs, slippage...etc), the grid strategy aims to provide a stable and simple environment where a martingale might possibly behave well. The goal of a simple grid strategy is to go long once the price crossover a certain level, a take profit is set at the level above the current one and stop loss is placed at the level below the current one, in a winning scenario the price reach the take profit, the position is closed and a new one is opened with the same setup. In a losing scenario, the price reaches the stop loss level, the position is closed and a short one is opened, the take profit is set at the level below the current one, and a stop loss is set at the level above the current one. Note that all levels are equally spaced. It follows from this strategy that wins and losses should be constant over time, as such our balance would evolve in a linear fashion. This is a great setup for a martingale, as we are theoretically assured to recover all the looses in a losing streak. Martingale - Exponential Decays - Risk/Reward By using a martingale we double our position size (exposure) each time we lose a trade, if we look at our balance when using a martingale we see significant drawdowns, with our balance peaking down significantly. The martingale sequence is subject to exponential growth, as such using a martingale makes our balance exposed to exponential decays, that's really bad, we could basically lose all the initially invested capital in a short amount of time, it follows from this that the theoretical success of a martingale is determined by what is the maximum losing streak you can endure Now consider how a martingale affects our risk-reward ratio, assuming unity position sizing our martingale sequence can be described by 2^(x-1) , using this formula we would get the amount of shares/contracts we need to purchase at the x trade of a losing streak, we would need to purchase 256 contracts in order to recover from a losing streak of size 9, this is enormous when you take into account that your wins are way smaller, the risk-reward ratio is totally unfair. Of course, some users might think that a losing streak of size 9 is pretty unlikely, if the probability of winning and losing are both equal to 0.5, then the probability of 9 consecutive losses is equal to 0.5^9 , there are approximately 0.2% of chance of having such large losing streak, note however that under a ranging market such case scenario could happen, but we will see later that the length of a losing streak is not the only problem. Other Problems Having a capital large enough to tank 9any number of consecutive losses is not the only thing one should focus on, as we have to take into account market prices and trading dynamics, that's where the ugly part start. Our first problem is frictional costs, one example being the spread, but this is a common problem for any strategy, however here a martingale is extra sensitive to it, if the strategy does not account for it then we will still double our positions costs but we might not recover all the losses of a losing streak, instead we would be recovering only a proportion of it, under such scenario you would be certain to lose over time. Another problem are gaps, market price might open under a stop-loss without triggering it, and this is a big no-no. Equity of the strategy on AMD, in a desired scenario the equity at the second arrow should have been at a higher position than the equity at the first arrow. In order for the strategy to be more effective, we would need to trade a market that does not close, such as the cryptocurrency market. Finally, we might be affected by slippage, altho only extreme values might drastically affect our balance. The Anti Martingale The strategy lets you use an anti-martingale, which double the position size after a win instead of a loss, the goal here is not to recover from a losing strike but instead to profit from a potential winning streak. Here we are exposing your balance to exponential gross but you might also lose a trade at the end a winning streak, you will generally want to reinitialize your position size after a few wins instead of waiting for the end of a streak. Alternative You can use other-kind of progressions for position sizing, such as a linear one, increasing your position size by a constant number each time you lose. More gentle progressions will recover a proportion of your losses in a losing streak. You can also simulate the effect of a martingale without doubling your position size by doubling your target profit, if for example you have a 10$ profit-target/stop-loss and lose a trade, you can use a 20$ profit target to recover from the lost trade + gain a profit of 10$. While this approach does not introduce exponential decay in your balance, you are betting on the market reaching your take profits, considering the fact that you are doubling their size you are expecting market volatility to increase drastically over time, as such this approach would not be extremely effective for high losing streak. Conclusion You will see a lot of auto-trading strategies that are based on a grid approach, they might even use a martingale. While the backtests will look appealing, you should think twice before using such kind of strategy, remember that frictional costs will be a huge challenge for the strategy, and that it assumes that the trader has an important initial capital. We have also seen that the risk/reward ratio is theoretically the worst you can have on a strategy, having a low reward and a high risk. This does not mean that progressive position sizing is bad, but it should not be pushed to the extreme. It is nice to note that the martingale is originally a betting system designed for casino games, which unlike trading are not subject to frictional costs, but even casino players don't use it, so why would you? Thx for reading
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Stratégie Pine Script™
par alexgrover
15
K.M Trend Strategy (BETA 1.2)My beautiful traders, how is everyone doing? This indicator I built detects trends, I haven't seen any repaints, I only had 3 minor ones. It is still on BETA version. To all new traders, and busy traders I will be posting one that you can set alerts. Please look under my profile or type " K.M Trend Alerts (BETA 1.2) " . I ask for everyone to try this script out, please provide any feedback under in the comments below. Any feedback will be amazing! Thank you to everyone, and www.tradingview.com. Sincerely, Kevin Manrrique Follow us on Instagram: TWTForexGroup, we have amazing content and also sell signals!
Stratégie Pine Script™
par TradeWithConfidence
40