Apple in ascending triangle, up to 280$ or down to 200$?

Apple had a great move up from 165$ to 237$ in only 3 month, but since then price has been oscillating between 200$ and 237$, this oscillation seem to form an ascending triangle.
Since the stock has been moving up in long and short term, the probability that this triangle breaks out to the upside is higher than breaking out to the down side.
Currently the price is sitting at lower level of this triangle and if the pattern holds, we should see the price move up to 237$ in short term. If the price breaks out from there to the upside, then we will be looking at the price target of 280$. On the other hand, if the price breaks out to the down side, the price target is at 200$ where we have a-formerly resistance-support line.
We should also notice that after the April-July bull run we have already seen a retracement to 0.5 level, and the current movement of the price could be seen as the uptrend after the retracement.