ADA in wave 4 reloading for wave 5 to travel up to 2600 Sats ?..
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Hi , thats my thoughts on ADA count.
risk/reward 12% lost, compared to 70% reward to go back to the 236 retrace.
Some subwaves will happen but as first milestone on a bullmarket 236 is the indicator to break for TA further moves in my opinion.
If ada breaks and close under the 382 level in this wave 4 correction move. Probably a short from 382 to 50% lvl is possible. If this breaks too and close there, attention because this means elliott wave count changed to invalid.
Next stop is then 618 fib on the rise support that lines up with the rise support.
But in my opinion with shelley mainnet Update what implements stakepools it is not probable to see a deep dive like that.
Time Fib in positive case shows to that timerange around 19-20april for a possible wave 5 start up to 236 big picture retrace around 2600 Sats Area.
Like allways, this kind of TA is only nearing not predicting.
-> So thats not a financial advice but for me the more positive scenario if elliot wave count works out like the rules are.
Reminder on elliott wave count:
"A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation."
risk/reward 12% lost, compared to 70% reward to go back to the 236 retrace.
Some subwaves will happen but as first milestone on a bullmarket 236 is the indicator to break for TA further moves in my opinion.
If ada breaks and close under the 382 level in this wave 4 correction move. Probably a short from 382 to 50% lvl is possible. If this breaks too and close there, attention because this means elliott wave count changed to invalid.
Next stop is then 618 fib on the rise support that lines up with the rise support.
But in my opinion with shelley mainnet Update what implements stakepools it is not probable to see a deep dive like that.
Time Fib in positive case shows to that timerange around 19-20april for a possible wave 5 start up to 236 big picture retrace around 2600 Sats Area.
Like allways, this kind of TA is only nearing not predicting.
-> So thats not a financial advice but for me the more positive scenario if elliot wave count works out like the rules are.
Reminder on elliott wave count:
"A correct Elliott wave count must observe three rules: Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1. Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5. Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation."
Note
ADA showing sighns of life with a 10% gain over this night.As expected it seems to be bounce of the 50% fib and las resistance acting as support as critical last Stand to keep this idea with elliott Wave 5 alive.
For my taste much more Bullish would be a bounce on 382 but 505 still in the rules of elliott wave theory.
Note
this probably will range in this area here for example, like ada did in wave 2-3 switch. BTC at this point is super strong so in Dollar terms ADA looks pretty again but BTC terms need some more volume and convincing to find more buyers again.
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