Beating ADA/USDT 2412.9% 1 year hodl returns with simplicity

Par CleoFinance
ADA has been one of the best investments in the last 12 months. Holding would have racked you in a whopping +2412%. Beating this on spot requires simplicity. The strategy presented here brings in +3406% in the same period.

WILL POST ALL POSITIONS AT THE BOTTOM

When creating strategies around trending assets it's best to keep it simple for a plethora of reasons but mainly:
1. The more complicated your strategy the harder is to execute it correctly and stay disciplined
2. In a bull run you are trying to avoid the downside. By throwing in plenty of conditions you might miss big upwards moves that put you at peril of underperforming HODL. If you are not beating holding there's no point to trade

Strategy objectives:
1. Hold open positions for days rather than minutes or hours. We don't want to be scalping assets like ADA with solid fundamentals that are already attracting attention.
2. Losing positions should be closed quicker on average
3. Willing to tolerate some drawdown but it needs to be less than 50%
4. Use technical indicators or price levels that are recognisable by the majority of traders - we want to be reacting when the masses are

The strategy:
It started with the investigation on which indicators, patterns and price levels ADA has been reacting to in the past. In the investigation stage we tested single candles, candlestick patterns, oscillators and variations of moving averages.
In terms of timeframe, we did want to maintain swing trading, but we know most of retail is watching lower timeframes. So we focused on strong signals that don't appear often on low time-frames.

The rules:
On the 30 minute chart
1. Open position when candle is bullish Marubozu
2. Close position when candle is bearish Marubozu AND price is below EMA(120)
To be clear we wait for the candle to form and if it is a Marubozu we act on the candle after.
No stop loss or take profit as we are working with market based close conditions that are respected 100% of the time. That's it, that's all the rules!

The results:
Since 03 Mar, 2020 till 03 Mar, 2021 the strategy had a return of +3406% on spot. It actually had a win rate of 46.1%. Yet the average win brought in +18.5% while the average loss was only -3.09%. In a year it opened 102 positions.
The max drawdown was 33.1%, which is pretty steep but acceptable for a strategy running for a year in crypto. The calculated profit factor of 7.38 (above 2 is usually considered good) gives us a good indication of justified risk.

The strategy was checked on other trading pairs like ETH/USDT as well and is profitable, but please do run your testing and optimisation before going live.

If I can answer any questions please let me know. Feel free to test or chnage this strategy to suit your needs.

The positions:

25/02/2021 12:00
02/03/2021 19:00
5 days
OP 1.0464
CP 1.2041
+15.1%

24/02/2021 01:00
24/02/2021 21:30
21 hours
OP 0.94185
CP 0.99912
+6.08%

16/02/2021 23:00
22/02/2021 18:00
6 days
OP 0.87371
CP 0.96849
+10.8%

14/02/2021 21:00
16/02/2021 20:30
2 days
OP 0.86839
CP 0.85123
-1.98%

01/02/2021 19:30
13/02/2021 21:30
12 days
OP 0.3653
CP 0.87822
+140%

28/01/2021 16:30
31/01/2021 15:00
3 days
OP 0.34487
CP 0.34729
+0.702%

22/01/2021 04:00
26/01/2021 06:30
4 days
OP 0.32367
CP 0.34058
+5.22%

21/01/2021 06:00
21/01/2021 22:00
16 hours
OP 0.36326
CP 0.32826
-9.63%

23/12/2020 23:30
20/01/2021 09:00
27 days
OP 0.14086
CP 0.35803
+154%

22/12/2020 14:00
23/12/2020 01:30
12 hours
OP 0.15887
CP 0.15656
-1.45%

20/12/2020 14:00
22/12/2020 13:30
2 days
OP 0.16362
CP 0.15623
-4.52%

18/12/2020 21:30
20/12/2020 04:00
1 day
OP 0.1652
CP 0.16255
-1.6%

11/12/2020 16:00
18/12/2020 19:30
7 days
OP 0.14155
CP 0.16232
+14.7%

09/12/2020 14:00
10/12/2020 01:00
11 hours
OP 0.14415
CP 0.14616
+1.39%

06/12/2020 12:00
08/12/2020 09:30
2 days
OP 0.15588
CP 0.14936
-4.18%

05/12/2020 01:00
06/12/2020 05:30
1 day
OP 0.15127
CP 0.15661
+3.53%

02/12/2020 17:30
04/12/2020 21:30
2 days
OP 0.15403
CP 0.15164
-1.55%

28/11/2020 00:00
01/12/2020 22:00
4 days
OP 0.14178
CP 0.15693
+10.7%

27/11/2020 03:30
27/11/2020 05:00
2 hours
OP 0.13853
CP 0.13718
-0.975%

26/11/2020 11:00
27/11/2020 03:00
16 hours
OP 0.1378
CP 0.13574
-1.49%

18/11/2020 21:00
26/11/2020 07:30
7 days
OP 0.10481
CP 0.13354
+27.4%

14/11/2020 18:00
18/11/2020 11:30
4 days
OP 0.10303
CP 0.10669
+3.55%

09/11/2020 18:00
13/11/2020 07:00
4 days
OP 0.10433
CP 0.10547
+1.09%

04/11/2020 05:00
09/11/2020 04:00
5 days
OP 0.09455
CP 0.10464
+10.7%

01/11/2020 10:30
04/11/2020 02:30
3 days
OP 0.09334
CP 0.09261
-0.782%

28/10/2020 22:00
29/10/2020 08:00
10 hours
OP 0.0989
CP 0.09924
+0.344%

26/10/2020 21:30
28/10/2020 21:30
2 days
OP 0.10322
CP 0.09774
-5.31%

22/10/2020 17:00
25/10/2020 09:30
3 days
OP 0.11077
CP 0.10722
-3.2%

19/10/2020 10:00
20/10/2020 15:00
1 day
OP 0.10704
CP 0.10203
-4.68%

07/10/2020 15:00
17/10/2020 20:30
10 days
OP 0.09356
CP 0.1054
+12.7%

04/10/2020 23:00
06/10/2020 11:00
2 days
OP 0.09751
CP 0.09505
-2.52%

02/10/2020 11:00
04/10/2020 16:00
2 days
OP 0.09173
CP 0.09455
+3.07%

24/09/2020 11:30
30/09/2020 12:00
6 days
OP 0.07961
CP 0.0975
+22.5%

23/09/2020 08:00
23/09/2020 23:30
16 hours
OP 0.08029
CP 0.07623
-5.06%

22/09/2020 08:30
22/09/2020 19:30
11 hours
OP 0.08087
CP 0.08212
+1.55%

20/09/2020 23:30
21/09/2020 05:00
6 hours
OP 0.08958
CP 0.08936
-0.246%

20/09/2020 03:30
20/09/2020 21:00
18 hours
OP 0.09156
CP 0.08863
-3.2%

17/09/2020 21:30
19/09/2020 08:00
1 day
OP 0.0946
CP 0.09086
-3.95%

07/09/2020 19:30
17/09/2020 02:30
9 days
OP 0.09186
CP 0.09269
+0.904%

06/09/2020 07:00
06/09/2020 17:30
11 hours
OP 0.08804
CP 0.09273
+5.33%

04/09/2020 13:00
05/09/2020 06:00
17 hours
OP 0.10176
CP 0.0996
-2.12%

28/08/2020 12:00
04/09/2020 07:00
7 days
OP 0.1098
CP 0.09506
-13.4%

27/08/2020 00:30
28/08/2020 06:00
1 day
OP 0.11521
CP 0.1078
-6.43%

26/08/2020 01:30
26/08/2020 21:30
20 hours
OP 0.11192
CP 0.11569
+3.37%

25/08/2020 21:30
26/08/2020 00:00
3 hours
OP 0.11106
CP 0.11239
+1.2%

24/08/2020 08:00
25/08/2020 08:30
1 day
OP 0.12545
CP 0.12076
-3.74%

23/08/2020 15:30
23/08/2020 16:30
1 hour
OP 0.12202
CP 0.12188
-0.115%

22/08/2020 06:30
22/08/2020 19:30
13 hours
OP 0.12272
CP 0.12463
+1.56%

22/08/2020 04:00
22/08/2020 04:30
30 minutes
OP 0.12197
CP 0.12083
-0.935%

21/08/2020 06:00
21/08/2020 10:00
4 hours
OP 0.13362
CP 0.13041
-2.4%

20/08/2020 16:00
21/08/2020 01:00
9 hours
OP 0.1327
CP 0.13203
-0.505%

20/08/2020 00:30
20/08/2020 04:00
4 hours
OP 0.13121
CP 0.12851
-2.06%

19/08/2020 22:30
19/08/2020 23:00
30 minutes
OP 0.13126
CP 0.13026
-0.762%

17/08/2020 16:30
19/08/2020 18:30
2 days
OP 0.14307
CP 0.13012
-9.05%

13/08/2020 01:30
17/08/2020 01:30
4 days
OP 0.13717
CP 0.13781
+0.467%

12/08/2020 07:00
12/08/2020 18:30
12 hours
OP 0.13005
CP 0.13321
+2.43%

30/07/2020 14:00
11/08/2020 13:30
12 days
OP 0.13949
CP 0.13816
-0.953%

30/07/2020 12:30
30/07/2020 13:00
30 minutes
OP 0.13872
CP 0.13789
-0.598%

25/07/2020 01:00
30/07/2020 05:00
5 days
OP 0.1253
CP 0.14065
+12.3%

23/07/2020 12:00
24/07/2020 06:30
19 hours
OP 0.12585
CP 0.12245
-2.7%

22/07/2020 10:30
22/07/2020 14:30
4 hours
OP 0.12252
CP 0.1214
-0.914%

16/07/2020 23:00
18/07/2020 22:30
2 days
OP 0.12608
CP 0.12281
-2.59%

10/07/2020 23:00
16/07/2020 19:00
6 days
OP 0.11923
CP 0.12541
+5.18%

06/07/2020 01:30
10/07/2020 17:30
5 days
OP 0.09825
CP 0.11559
+17.6%

28/06/2020 07:00
05/07/2020 07:00
7 days
OP 0.0776
CP 0.09601
+23.7%

27/06/2020 03:00
27/06/2020 22:30
20 hours
OP 0.08021
CP 0.07725
-3.69%

25/06/2020 01:30
26/06/2020 02:30
1 day
OP 0.08285
CP 0.08105
-2.17%

15/06/2020 18:30
24/06/2020 12:00
9 days
OP 0.07551
CP 0.08218
+8.83%

13/06/2020 07:00
14/06/2020 04:30
22 hours
OP 0.07869
CP 0.07782
-1.11%

11/06/2020 21:00
13/06/2020 05:30
1 day
OP 0.07584
CP 0.07787
+2.68%

10/06/2020 04:30
10/06/2020 17:30
13 hours
OP 0.0816
CP 0.08111
-0.6%

06/06/2020 09:00
07/06/2020 21:30
2 days
OP 0.08549
CP 0.08529
-0.234%

25/05/2020 17:30
05/06/2020 15:30
11 days
OP 0.05395
CP 0.08406
+55.8%

23/05/2020 18:00
25/05/2020 15:00
2 days
OP 0.05456
CP 0.05255
-3.68%

22/05/2020 09:00
23/05/2020 16:30
1 day
OP 0.05334
CP 0.05449
+2.16%

17/05/2020 10:30
21/05/2020 10:00
4 days
OP 0.05132
CP 0.05491
+7%

16/05/2020 05:00
16/05/2020 09:30
5 hours
OP 0.05135
CP 0.05055
-1.56%

11/05/2020 21:30
15/05/2020 12:30
4 days
OP 0.04807
CP 0.05073
+5.53%

09/05/2020 15:00
10/05/2020 00:00
9 hours
OP 0.05259
CP 0.05145
-2.17%

07/05/2020 22:30
09/05/2020 08:00
1 day
OP 0.05103
CP 0.05139
+0.705%

04/05/2020 18:30
07/05/2020 08:30
3 days
OP 0.04995
CP 0.04931
-1.28%

30/04/2020 18:30
03/05/2020 15:00
3 days
OP 0.04904
CP 0.04831
-1.49%

30/04/2020 14:00
30/04/2020 17:30
4 hours
OP 0.0504
CP 0.04834
-4.09%

21/04/2020 23:00
30/04/2020 10:00
8 days
OP 0.03481
CP 0.04848
+39.3%

16/04/2020 06:30
21/04/2020 07:30
5 days
OP 0.03216
CP 0.03431
+6.69%

15/04/2020 18:30
15/04/2020 19:00
30 minutes
OP 0.03308
CP 0.03292
-0.484%

13/04/2020 23:00
15/04/2020 16:00
2 days
OP 0.03334
CP 0.03251
-2.49%

13/04/2020 07:00
13/04/2020 14:00
7 hours
OP 0.03255
CP 0.03205
-1.54%

10/04/2020 15:00
13/04/2020 06:00
3 days
OP 0.03301
CP 0.03221
-2.42%

06/04/2020 09:30
10/04/2020 05:30
4 days
OP 0.03348
CP 0.03367
+0.568%

02/04/2020 00:00
05/04/2020 12:30
4 days
OP 0.03097
CP 0.03201
+3.36%

26/03/2020 09:00
29/03/2020 19:00
3 days
OP 0.02987
CP 0.02892
-3.18%

24/03/2020 06:30
25/03/2020 19:30
2 days
OP 0.02917
CP 0.02925
+0.274%

20/03/2020 22:00
22/03/2020 18:30
2 days
OP 0.0297
CP 0.02754
-7.27%

17/03/2020 01:00
20/03/2020 20:30
4 days
OP 0.02458
CP 0.02738
+11.4%

16/03/2020 11:30
16/03/2020 13:30
2 hours
OP 0.02233
CP 0.02227
-0.269%

14/03/2020 14:30
15/03/2020 18:00
1 day
OP 0.02709
CP 0.02654
-2.03%

13/03/2020 05:30
14/03/2020 08:30
1 day
OP 0.02454
CP 0.02668
+8.72%

10/03/2020 10:30
11/03/2020 22:00
1 day
OP 0.04184
CP 0.0385
-7.98%

09/03/2020 19:30
10/03/2020 07:00
12 hours
OP 0.04043
CP 0.04106
+1.56%

03/03/2020 10:00
07/03/2020 13:00
4 days
OP 0.04858
CP 0.05069
+4.34%

03/03/2020 03:00
03/03/2020 07:00
4 hours
OP 0.04848
CP 0.04812
-0.743%





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