AUD/USD: I was thinking big short, but after looking closer...
Just posted another idea favouring shorts big time, already started dreaming about this huge AB=CD pattern...
I wanted to do a more detailed analysis first though to see if an AB=CD was actually plausible and after doing my analysis I must say I am highly doubting it atm...
Reasons why the big short scenario is less likely imho:
1. A valid AB=CD pattern should not only be harmonic in terms of price range equality of the AB and CD leg but also in terms of time range. As it stands now it should be dropping spectacularly or the concept of time range equality is out of the question! We have already passed half of the time range of AB and CD is not even near half the price range of AB...
2. Looking at the weeklly chart on the right we could have just as easily broken and re-tested that down trendline clearing the way to a big long!
3. And what about that huge divergence on the weekly...!
Not saying that it is not possible but to me the big short looks less appealing now than the big long... (possibly after some more sideways movement)!
Short-term I will probably still sell the breakout of the 4H trendline from my previous idea but I won't count on too much down movement beyond that S/R zone as drawn on the weekly chart though!
I wanted to do a more detailed analysis first though to see if an AB=CD was actually plausible and after doing my analysis I must say I am highly doubting it atm...
Reasons why the big short scenario is less likely imho:
1. A valid AB=CD pattern should not only be harmonic in terms of price range equality of the AB and CD leg but also in terms of time range. As it stands now it should be dropping spectacularly or the concept of time range equality is out of the question! We have already passed half of the time range of AB and CD is not even near half the price range of AB...
2. Looking at the weeklly chart on the right we could have just as easily broken and re-tested that down trendline clearing the way to a big long!
3. And what about that huge divergence on the weekly...!
Not saying that it is not possible but to me the big short looks less appealing now than the big long... (possibly after some more sideways movement)!
Short-term I will probably still sell the breakout of the 4H trendline from my previous idea but I won't count on too much down movement beyond that S/R zone as drawn on the weekly chart though!
Commentaire:
Above the weekly resistance zone!
