AUD/USD Outlook (04 August 2020)

Overall, AUD/USD is trending upwards.

The Australian Trade Balance data released earlier today indicated an increase in goods and services surplus in June.
The Retail Sales m/m data released indicated an increase in consumer spending in June.

• Trade Balance (Actual: 8.20B, Forecast: 8.80B, Previous: 7.34% revised from 8.03B)
  
• Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 2.7%, Forecast: 2.4%, Previous: 2.4%)
  

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be announcing their interest rate decision later at 1230 (SGT). Although it is likely that the central bank will be holding interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, with the recent declaration of Victoria as a state of disaster due to the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases, there is a possibility that the RBA may further lower interest rate. Moreover, RBA governor Philip Lowe highlighted recently the possibility of lowering interest rate to 0.10%.

AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.69800 and the next resistance zone is at 0.72000.
With the worsening condition of COVID-19 in Australia, if the RBA expressed any signs of dovishness, look for selling opportunities of AUD/USD.