Bitcoin - Wave C is starting

A lot of things about BTC is only clear in hindsight, so everyone is just predicting.

If you study Elliott Wave, the waves have so far been very perfect because BTC is a math model, but it is very hard to do it in real-time is because corrections can get complicated.

So at 48k, it is clear that price has retrace to the previous Wave 2. Unless we move up more, if not this tells us two things:

1) Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 is confirmed to be a 5-wave decline and not an ABC (big diff).
2) Wave 1 from Nov 2021 is an extension (nothing fancy about this).

These are clues that Wave C is just getting started.

Based on standard Wave C fib targets, CvsA or CvsB are unattainable as price will go negative.
The higher probability only one left is the 88.6% retracement level at 10k. 78.6% is at 16k which was already done.

Before bulls dunk on me, I am just a trader. Good if you have conviction to hold spot, but this level, it makes little sense to be long.

Never say never, because there are many unfilled CME gaps below. They may not always get filled, but mostly does.

My target is at 10k.

Just my view.