Looking to the past to guess the future

Looking to the past we have repeatet stronger downtrends for 2 to 3 weeks (red lines). The special situation in March 2020 was causing a dip twice as deep. Continuing this pattern I come to the conclusion that we are at the next itermediate bottom zone beginning June (first half of the second week if I should bet now). There is a small chance that we might go deeper the weeks after.

Just another guess, nobody should listen to me.

Transaction en cours:

I decided to have 3 levels where I will buy:
- 8'100 EUR / 8'900 USD
- 6'800 EUR / 7'500 USD which might take until beginning of June to happen
- 5'600 EUR / 6'200 USD which might not happen at all

What are you thinking? What are your plans? Would be cool to disuss and get some ideas / insights.

Commentaire:

The assumption behind my idea is: the major part of trading happens with algorithms. Algorithms produce the same output, when identical input is given. We could discuss about AI and all the sophisticated stuff BlackRock’s Aladdin is supposed to do, but that’s not what’s happening in the real world. As an IT guy I know that neural nets and deep learning are nothing more, but silly small scripts chained together.

I'm not at the point where my own automated analysis predicts what all the other algorithms will do. Which means my human guess can totally be wrong.