Let me start off by saying I got #rekt during this bear market. In hindsight, I see that not listening to yourself and not following through with one's own predictions is a bad idea.
I had little trading knowledge back then (not that I'm a genius now), but even I could see that BTC's bullrun to 20K USD was pure euphoria. Despite that, I held most of my BTC instead of cashing out.
20K was clearly a psychological resistance, but I was a n00b, so I didn't make the right choice.
All along the bear market up until now, I've been trying to learn new trading and investing strategies.
Of course, one of the things I found was the Wall Street Cheat Sheet. It's hard not to see the similarities with reality.
Ever since, I've tried to shift my strategy for trading BTC to following the trend and identifying reversal points.
In this chart, I'm trying to find out the best places to buy and sell as BTC price goes bouncing up and down through what I like to call trend channels. Bollinger Bands (20) and EMA (60) help me determine the angle of the trend.
As of right now, it would seem to me that the angle is trying to look upwards. Volatility was falling as the BB indicate by squeezing, until an increase in volume made BTC go from 6100 to 8400, bringing back volatility.
I placed Fib Retracement levels at 20K (100%) and 5K (0%), as I felt a 75% drop from ATH was more than reasonable. Interestingly enough, 23% retracement level is at 8500, where I initially thought the sudden spike upwards would halt.
RSI is in the overbought area, while price is colliding with the upper BB, indicating the price might have gotten way too excited.
No wonder it got excited. It seems that volume is coming back. I see Crypto Twitter becoming bullish. I've witnessed many bears start to tweet about their bullish sentiment. I'm bullish too, which is why I think that trend is reversing, but I'm shorting in the short term, with a very tight stop, just in case BTC decides to push back into the second light blue box I painted.
That being said, I would'nt be surprised if the price went back down to 7500 to cool off some of that excitement, so that it can then retest the 23% Fib and hopefully consolidating inside the yellow box (price range: 7800-10k), which would be a confirmation of a trend reversal for me.
On the other hand, if it drops below 7500, for me it would mean that the bear trend has not yet finished, at which point I'd have to take a look at the chart again.
Sorry for having so many things going on at the same time on the chart, but this is how I justify my trades in BTCUSD, or determining the point of entry into alts.
I had little trading knowledge back then (not that I'm a genius now), but even I could see that BTC's bullrun to 20K USD was pure euphoria. Despite that, I held most of my BTC instead of cashing out.
20K was clearly a psychological resistance, but I was a n00b, so I didn't make the right choice.
All along the bear market up until now, I've been trying to learn new trading and investing strategies.
Of course, one of the things I found was the Wall Street Cheat Sheet. It's hard not to see the similarities with reality.
Ever since, I've tried to shift my strategy for trading BTC to following the trend and identifying reversal points.
In this chart, I'm trying to find out the best places to buy and sell as BTC price goes bouncing up and down through what I like to call trend channels. Bollinger Bands (20) and EMA (60) help me determine the angle of the trend.
As of right now, it would seem to me that the angle is trying to look upwards. Volatility was falling as the BB indicate by squeezing, until an increase in volume made BTC go from 6100 to 8400, bringing back volatility.
I placed Fib Retracement levels at 20K (100%) and 5K (0%), as I felt a 75% drop from ATH was more than reasonable. Interestingly enough, 23% retracement level is at 8500, where I initially thought the sudden spike upwards would halt.
RSI is in the overbought area, while price is colliding with the upper BB, indicating the price might have gotten way too excited.
No wonder it got excited. It seems that volume is coming back. I see Crypto Twitter becoming bullish. I've witnessed many bears start to tweet about their bullish sentiment. I'm bullish too, which is why I think that trend is reversing, but I'm shorting in the short term, with a very tight stop, just in case BTC decides to push back into the second light blue box I painted.
That being said, I would'nt be surprised if the price went back down to 7500 to cool off some of that excitement, so that it can then retest the 23% Fib and hopefully consolidating inside the yellow box (price range: 7800-10k), which would be a confirmation of a trend reversal for me.
On the other hand, if it drops below 7500, for me it would mean that the bear trend has not yet finished, at which point I'd have to take a look at the chart again.
Sorry for having so many things going on at the same time on the chart, but this is how I justify my trades in BTCUSD, or determining the point of entry into alts.
Transaction en cours:
I made myself check out how my prediction was holding on the 31 of July, so here I am.
Price seems to be holding inside of the yellow box I drew, but things seem bearish in the short term, so I am still maintaining my call of price going to the 7500 range.
Hopefully, price will trickle down slowly, with small volume, to allow Bollinger Bands to squeeze again. If that were the case, after hitting around 7500, I would expect it to go up again.
Though bearish short term, I am still bullish in mid-long term.
Price seems to be holding inside of the yellow box I drew, but things seem bearish in the short term, so I am still maintaining my call of price going to the 7500 range.
Hopefully, price will trickle down slowly, with small volume, to allow Bollinger Bands to squeeze again. If that were the case, after hitting around 7500, I would expect it to go up again.
Though bearish short term, I am still bullish in mid-long term.
Trade fermée: cible de profit atteinte:
BTC reached my short target at 7500 sooner than expected (pls stop dumping).
Now, I see two possibilities:
- Price consolidates for a few days in the 7.3-8.2 K range, preparing itself for a continuation of the bullish movement.
- Price slumps below BB (20) average and EMA (60) on the daily chart, dropping below support at 7300, with the next relevant support at 6300.
Another thing to pay attention to is the volumen on the weekly chart. It seems like we've had a considerable influx of money into the market, despite price fluctuations, so we will keep an eye out for the close of this new candle.
Now, I see two possibilities:
- Price consolidates for a few days in the 7.3-8.2 K range, preparing itself for a continuation of the bullish movement.
- Price slumps below BB (20) average and EMA (60) on the daily chart, dropping below support at 7300, with the next relevant support at 6300.
Another thing to pay attention to is the volumen on the weekly chart. It seems like we've had a considerable influx of money into the market, despite price fluctuations, so we will keep an eye out for the close of this new candle.
If we go for a lower low, market is still predominantly bearish.