All in if BTC finds support above 200 SMA on 3 hrly @ ~6580 USD

Mis à jour

If BTC can pierce above the orange 200 SMA on the 3 hrly @ 6580 USD, then I am all in with the rest of the USDT from BTC that I had previously cost-average sold off at ca. 9636 USD when the price dipped below the orange 200 SMA.

Stop loss earlier triggered and sold off almost 30% of my small BTC trading account holdings. :(
Bought back in immediately when BTC pierced above 6143 again.

"PRISM Signals" triggered a buy on the 3 hrly (indicating bullish momentum/acceleration trends).
CYBER ENSEMBLE also registered a buy on the 3hrly earlier, strengthening the case for a bullish short-term bias.

A more zoomed in and "cleaner" view:

"Cleaner" zoomed out view, showing only the 200 SMA on the 3 hrly:

Continued from:

BTC coming down to re-visit *local 61.8% Fib level.

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LIVIDITIUM (parallel dynamic fib channels, with signals optimized for BTC on the daily chart)

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BTC had went over the orange 200 SMA target on the 3hrly. But need to wait till it closes over + finds support (i.e. at least one candle closes above, and ideally 2) above the 200 SMA.

Looks like it is now getting rejected by it instead.

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Violently rejected!

And 40mins left to candle close!
Bearish if unable to break and close above the 200 SMA.

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Now that the price has been rejected by the orange 200 SMA, the only hope for the bulls would be if the price is able to sustain its present level above the green 50 SMA over the next 24-48hrs or so, to pull the red 21 EMA above the 50 SMA.

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Sell signal triggered on the Cyber Ensemble.

Price likely to go back down now -- the market did not take the opportunity to break into a bullish trend in this try, but have instead shown further weakness.
Will wait and see if the price is able to hold above the red 21 EMA @ ca. 6272 USD -- where it might then have another try again later.

If it drops below, the 21 EMA, then ca. 5950 USD is the target, with a real chance to drop down to the 5213 USD VPVR level.

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Closing below 21 EMA soon on the 3hrly...
The

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21 EMA crossed above both 50 and 200 SMA, and BTC pumped.
50 SMA about to cross 200 SMA.. waiting for confirmation..

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50% in some when 21 EMA crossed above and CYBER ENSEMBLE triggered a buy. And +20% in after it broke out above the 21 EMA. Still 30% on the sidelines.

But now Sell signal triggered on the CYBER ENSEMBLE on the 15mins.

Sold off into USDT to lock in profit, and now waiting for a retrace down to see if price will find support on the 6612 USD VPVR level; or the 61.8% Fib level, or IMO, more likely, the 32.2% Fib level.

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Looks like it is finding support on above the 78.6% Fib which is a sign of strength with this recent pump.
Entering back 50% with stoploss set, and waiting for buy [B] signal confirmation from my Cyber Ensemble script.

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Stoploss presently set at 5% below 21 EMA on the 15min chart btw.

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Trade still going strong..Pierce resistance but will it find support?

Entered with the remaining trading funds at 6612 USD earlier, when Buy signal on CYBER ENSEMBLE triggered again..

Updating stop-loss to protect gains thus far.

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Broke out higher from the ascending channel as drawn, and effortlessly pierced above VPVR resistance level @ 6612 USD!

Will still need to be able to at the very least go above 7200 USD and hold above the 2D 21 EMA for me to switch to a slightly more bullish mode. Presently still bearish on the higher timeframe.

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Expecting to revisit the 61.8% local fib retrace level which coincide approx. with the top of the yellow ascending channel as drawn.
Also, note the significant volume of this pump.

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The exact level for me to turn bullish into the longer term is the purple 7238 USD VPVR level, which coincides with the 21 EMA on the 2D chart:

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Sell signal triggered on CYBER ENSEMBLE on the 15mins:

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Price re-entering the channel == bearish sign; confirmed if 21 EMA on the 15mins chart fails to hold. Price appear to be supported above the 21 EMA atm.

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Will let Cyber Ensemble to continue to do its job. :)

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Still waiting for CYBER ENSEMBLE signal a buy again on the 15mins timeframe where the script shows good confluence with the present series of price actions.

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Price breaking up above the channel again. Will it be able to break 7238 USD this time?

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Rejected by the red 21 EMA but appears to be supported by the 200 SMA for now on the 15mins timeframe.

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Sell signal from CYBER ENSEMBLE on the 3hrly eventually obeyed.
Price movement continues to further conform to the ascending channel that I had initially drawn with this rejection.

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BTC is now supported above the daily 21 EMA.

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Note to users: Cyber Ensemble doesn't work well on the daily chart.
It is optimized for the 3hrly charts.

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CYBER ENSEMBLE generates buy/sell signals based on the interplay of an ensemble of optimized indicators and market state filters on the 3hrly chart for BTC. Depending on the market phases, the 4hrly or the 2hrly may sometimes work better (always check for confluence by backtesting with the recent market price-actions). I also found that right after a massive move, where volatility is high as the market tries to find a new equilibrium, going down to the 30 or 15 mins chart works well too. However, during less volatile phases, the poor "signal-to-noise" at these lower timeframes may result in more false-positives being triggered by the script, where price actions that does not conform with expectation base on TA can occur at a much higher frequence -- and which gets averaged (smoothed) out at the higher timeframes.

It needs to be said that TA is a probabilistic game, and does not claim to provide absolute answers. That is so with this and any indicators for the matter. Trend breaking price movements (such as the recent traditional market, e.g. SPX, correlated dump in BTC -- i.e. a blackswan event) can periodically occur which TA can never predict. In general, TA works the best during those in-between periods of relative calm, where the present market structure takes forms, and holds, and becomes clear).

cybernetwork

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