Why Trend Reversal and Bitcoin is headed to the next Moon?

We have been in a pretty bullish market for years. There have been various attempts to manipulate the market by generating good or bad news. In the long run, these news will have only minor influence. They won't break the bull trend. Why have we seen a trend reversal at 6500 from the point of view of Technical Anaylse (TA) and why can we expect again a strong upward trend until the end of the year? yes, of course the upward trend will probably be interrupted by a correction, but in the end the way up is clear. Let's analyze the larger cycles of the last few years. Here we can see a good pattern according to TA. There is currently no reason why these patterns cannot be applied this year and next.

To the point und to the big cycles:
First we saw the first big hype 2014, which ended with the first big down by -85%. The -85% was caused by the collapse of Mr Gox. The collapse has significantly intensified the already expected decline and initiated a bear phase. Even then, the special bitcoin pattern, which I will show in more detail below, was already valid.

The start ...
We start at the price top in 2014 at around 1170 USD. Now let's look at the list of price movements in percent and in USD and anylyse them... I analyzed all the larger waves and calculated the movements in percent. All values are rounded (linear chart). Since the top in 2014 at 1170 USD we can see 9 bigger ups and downs until now.
0. down
-85 % > 160 USD (First big down, after hype, normal correction intensified by the collapse of MrGox)
1. up/down
+212 % > 500 USD (upturn over 200 % !!!, after that -40%)
-40 % > 300 USD
2. up/down
+163 % > 790 USD
-29 % > 560 USD
3. up/down
+107 % > 1160 USD
-36 % > 735 USD
4. up/down
+80 % > 1330 USD
-32 % > 900
5. up/down
+233 % > 3000 USD (upturn over 200 % !!!, after that -40%)
-40 % > 1820 USD
6. up/down
+173 % > 4970 USD
-40 % > 2980 USD
7. up/down
+165 % > 7900 USD
-32 % > 5400 USD
8. up/down
+268 % > 19900 USD (boost near 300 % !!!, after that -70%. the end of the boom.)
-70 % > 6000 USD (The second big down, after the hype can be seen as a normal correction without amplification of an extreme message. even though various negative news have been spread over the last few months, this has not had the same effect as mr gox. the market is too stable. reports have less effect. this is a "normal" situation. a correction to approx. -85% (3000 USD) as with the first big down cannot therefore be expected according to TA.)
9. up/down (bearish move)
+95 % > 11790 USD (This is the usual rapid recovery after a sharp downturn.)
-45 % > 6500 USD (After another decline, the bottom has been reached at around 6000 USD / 6500 USD).

What does that show us? After strong rises, we always see crashes between 30 % and 40 % as "normal" price movements. Only with the two hypes the support is lower. However, from the point of view of these "normal" price movements, this is completely in line with the ordinary.

So far so good ... Now the question of trend reversal arises. When was that? Or when it's coming? Here we saw a relatively clear signal at 7700 (fibo 38). From the point of view of this TA this was a trend reversal and a broke out of the big wedge. What could the next movements look like? Possible steps and targets:

10. up/down (1. bullish move)
up: between + 96 % > 12800 USD and +145 % > 16000 USD
down: between - 30 % > 8200 USD and -40 % > 9600 USD
11. up/down (2. bullish move)
up: between 160 % to fibo 1.236 > 25000 USD or 233 % to fibo 1.618 > 32000 USD

With this review and outlook, I would like to put the uncertainty in the market into perspective. For Day- and Swingtrader there can be a rough evaluation. Traders looking at 3-minute charts analyse the situation differently. This is mainly about the long-term approach. In the short term the price can drop a bit - maybe down to 8500 USD / 8300 USD, but that doesn't change the overall development in my opinion.

Let's see what happens. Happy trading. :-)

Commentaire:

BTCUSD (D): close up. after an up of 50 % since 6500 we see a little correction. possible fibo 62 (8500). maybe we stay above fibo 78 (9000). good thing that we have held the MA100 so far.

Commentaire:

BTCUSD (D): check the MAs. We stay between MA100 and MA200. A break of MA200 would be a very positive signal.

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BTCUSD (D): ma200 ...

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BTCUSD (D): shortterm view. we did not broke ma200. next support at ma100 = 9000/8900. lets see... no problem for the long run ...

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BTCUSD (D): shortterm view - update. we near ma100 and support line. ...

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BTCUSD (D): shortterm view - update. we stopped exactly at fibo 0.786 as expected. this could create a new trend channel.

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BTCUSD (D): short term update. we touched ma100. it is an important support point. if it break, next support at fibo 0.62.

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BTCUSD (D): Stop at short term fibo 0.5 ... perhaps additionally a hammer candlestick when we close.

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BTCUSD (D): if we stay above the short-term fibo 0.5 (~8200), it is a good sign for up. it seems that the support at 0.5 is good. we touched the line twice and didn't break it.

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BTCUSD (D): currently we are at a important point. if the main resistance line is not strong enough, the next support is at fibo .38 (7800). then the next support would be at fibo .23 (7300). then fibo.0 at 6500. usually the supports are at fibo .38 max .23.

Commentaire:

BTCUSD (D): short term view. okay. support line stay strong. lets see if we close above it.

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BTCUSD (D): post from may18 is still valid. look two post above.

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BTCUSD (D): chart update. new trend channel possible.

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BTCUSD (D): chart update. no news. still boring. ;-)

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BTCUSD (D): chart update. bullfight at the bottom, nothing more to tell. we'll have to wait and see.