Look - nobody knows what's going to happen. As bold and confident as some may seem with their "ideas" here, they have no way of knowing how the market is going to behave or what will happen over the next month, or which of the handful of potential patterns/scenarios will play out, so let's go on what we DO know to be true right now:
1. Bitcoin is moving pretty much in tandem with the stock market, and we can't expect a Bitcoin recovery until the stock market recovers, which we know isn't going to have a chance of happening until the virus is at least somewhat contained globally and cases start to go down, which is probably many many months away.
2. We are close to losing the logarithmic trendline that has supported Bitcoin's price since 2013. Closing any higher time frame candle under 7550 would pretty much destroy that trend and cause a panic sell down to lower 7ks/upper 6ks.
3. Since our calamitous plunge from the 10k area over the weekend we've been oscillating between a resistance of 8070 and a support of 7750 (on Bitstamp).
So - what's the best way to play this?
People who shorted from anywhere above 8.5k are sitting pretty right now and are really safe. If you are one of them, you can simply wait for a higher time frame candle to close above 8070 and once that happens, take some profit and layer in profitable stops for the rest of your position.
If you didn't short from above 8.5 and are looking for a way in, you can wait for a 4-hr or higher candle close under 7750. That would almost certainly incite a move down to the 7500 area at a minimum. It's a nice trade even if it stops there. You can take profit but leave a decent portion of the position open in case it keeps going.
Alternatively, Bitcoin does love to go back and test breakout areas, so a market maker-driven move back up to the 8400 resistance area would not be unheard of at all. If we get a 4hr or higher candle close above the 8070 resistance, it will almost certainly incite a move back up to 8400-8500 - another nice trade.
Cheers and happy trading and stay healthy!
1. Bitcoin is moving pretty much in tandem with the stock market, and we can't expect a Bitcoin recovery until the stock market recovers, which we know isn't going to have a chance of happening until the virus is at least somewhat contained globally and cases start to go down, which is probably many many months away.
2. We are close to losing the logarithmic trendline that has supported Bitcoin's price since 2013. Closing any higher time frame candle under 7550 would pretty much destroy that trend and cause a panic sell down to lower 7ks/upper 6ks.
3. Since our calamitous plunge from the 10k area over the weekend we've been oscillating between a resistance of 8070 and a support of 7750 (on Bitstamp).
So - what's the best way to play this?
People who shorted from anywhere above 8.5k are sitting pretty right now and are really safe. If you are one of them, you can simply wait for a higher time frame candle to close above 8070 and once that happens, take some profit and layer in profitable stops for the rest of your position.
If you didn't short from above 8.5 and are looking for a way in, you can wait for a 4-hr or higher candle close under 7750. That would almost certainly incite a move down to the 7500 area at a minimum. It's a nice trade even if it stops there. You can take profit but leave a decent portion of the position open in case it keeps going.
Alternatively, Bitcoin does love to go back and test breakout areas, so a market maker-driven move back up to the 8400 resistance area would not be unheard of at all. If we get a 4hr or higher candle close above the 8070 resistance, it will almost certainly incite a move back up to 8400-8500 - another nice trade.
Cheers and happy trading and stay healthy!