BTC - consolidation continues and cash is king - for now
Mis à jour
Seems to me people are either unreasonably bullish or unrealistically bearish. 8-12k is simply a Wyckoff trading range - one I expect we will stay locked in for at least a few weeks. Above 12k I am bullish, below 8k I am bearish.
There was huge volume coming off the 6k bottom, which as we all know was horribly oversold. In another idea I said if it hit 5k go all in with your life savings - too bad we didn't quite get there. If BTC closes a daily below 8k I'd be expecting a retest and possibly a move even lower, but I don't think this will happen unless we stay in a protracted bear trend moving into spring. Seen a lot of talk about breaking the downward trend line recently. I don't put much faith in trend lines unless there are correlating layers of Sup/Res, but the simple fact is these people aren't using log and they should be. I see no trend line break. 50/100 EMA about to cross bearish which could cause further selloff in the near term. 50/200 still bullish but tightening and in my opinion the golden cross is way too slow for crypto anyway.
To summarize. I think it is highly likely we stay range bound between 8-12k for some time and I personally am fine with that. We tested 12kish and moved lower, but haven't really given that 8k a chance yet. I'll be a buyer in the zone around 8000 that I've marked as support and a frequent scalper when opportunities present. Look to the daily bbands as they tighten for more hints on a final direction choice out of this range- but remember at this point in time the mid term trend is down and while you can trade these easy swings until your blue in the face, at the end of the day cash is still king and I'm going back to it until a clean break above 12k or until the ultimate direction out of this wyckoff range becomes clearer.
As an aside, isn't that GAM suite of indicators nice? Sell bearish pivots, RSI divs, and buy confirmed reversals all day long for easy money.
There was huge volume coming off the 6k bottom, which as we all know was horribly oversold. In another idea I said if it hit 5k go all in with your life savings - too bad we didn't quite get there. If BTC closes a daily below 8k I'd be expecting a retest and possibly a move even lower, but I don't think this will happen unless we stay in a protracted bear trend moving into spring. Seen a lot of talk about breaking the downward trend line recently. I don't put much faith in trend lines unless there are correlating layers of Sup/Res, but the simple fact is these people aren't using log and they should be. I see no trend line break. 50/100 EMA about to cross bearish which could cause further selloff in the near term. 50/200 still bullish but tightening and in my opinion the golden cross is way too slow for crypto anyway.
To summarize. I think it is highly likely we stay range bound between 8-12k for some time and I personally am fine with that. We tested 12kish and moved lower, but haven't really given that 8k a chance yet. I'll be a buyer in the zone around 8000 that I've marked as support and a frequent scalper when opportunities present. Look to the daily bbands as they tighten for more hints on a final direction choice out of this range- but remember at this point in time the mid term trend is down and while you can trade these easy swings until your blue in the face, at the end of the day cash is still king and I'm going back to it until a clean break above 12k or until the ultimate direction out of this wyckoff range becomes clearer.
As an aside, isn't that GAM suite of indicators nice? Sell bearish pivots, RSI divs, and buy confirmed reversals all day long for easy money.
Note
That upper red block should extend to 12k, not sure what happened there.Note
So far so good. Time to ease in for the brave.Note
W bottom. Daily stoch turned green and reset. On the way to the liquidity zone at 12k imo.Note
I thought I should update this. Tempted to close this idea, but will keep it going for now. In retrospect it seems obvious that btc would want to test that prev 6k bottom rather than strictly follow my wyckoff box. Apparently taxes are an issue as well, and lots still selling because of that - but that at least is about to dry up.The volume in the 6000s is crazy heavy considering the price isn't moving much. Judging by the huge spikes on altcoins smart money that sold the top earlier this year are putting money back into btc here and buying alts very lazily. Big money (wall street?) is also almost assuredly accumulating here.
If it bounces here over the coming week(s) I can see this being a very solid double adam and eve bottom for 2018 and depending on the strength of the bounce, it wouldn't surprise me if BTC never tested these levels again. This crash is about twice as fast as the 2014 timeline and I feel like a protracted bear market is unlikely, altho a few months of consolidation higher in the 8-12k would be super healthy.
This could absolutely go lower, possibly to the 5ks, but the downside here is limited and I think its near time to rip the faces off the bears who will likely short it the whole way up to 12k (yes I still like that level).
GLGT.
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Last update was right, hope you were long. I was mostly in spot from 8k (less than ideal) but then bought the lows hard on leverage and it worked out nicely. I always say bitcoin is super forgiving if you just play major swings with spot. You don't have to get the bottom, or the top. You just need the middle bit to make a killing. Trading alts to make more coin is way easier than high leverage.So, I still think we heading for 12k. I say 12k as a low target. That is the level where all the breakout traders will fomo in and we should see 13k, possibly even 14k if the fomo is crazy enough.
Where do we go from there is the real question. It's one I don't really have an answer to. At this point i see two scenarios. #1. Market movers sell the shit out of to rekt all the fomo'ers and we get another accumulation period maybe in the 8k range prior to the halvening in 2020. If we get a protracted bear period it could go to 5k but i dont think this is likely. People calling for 3k are super retarded imo. #2. It retests 11k bounces hard and then moons to break ATH later this year (unlikely imo, and depends on macro situation).
I'm not going to update this idea forever, so when it hits 12k(yes I'm saying when) I'll close it with a "sorry i wasn't perfect but i basically told you so" and share another idea when i have one. PEace
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Oh. Doh. Forgot the most important part.Look to altcoins to determine the top. If alts peak and start to die around the time bitcoin hits 12-13k then its time to phhhhtt.
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