BTC - The path to $8200 with or without a major correction!
In yesterday's article we were anticipating a pullback to the $6500 range for a short term trade for $7500. However the market had other things in mind and the pullback was very shallow just touching the 0.236 level which is enough to say it's complete but does not necessarily mean it has. However we did move up from $7500 to yet hit another high, so we can with a high probability state "that trade is no longer something to wait for". Now on the chart above I went through the exhausting means of showing not only the overall EW count but the fractals as well. This is important as it gives us better insight to where we are in the longer term cycles. I feel highly confident of the count up to the first box where the blue 3 and 4 waves are labeled. However after that it get's a little murky. From our longer count starting at the bottom we are in wave iii, which by nature is a strong bullish wave but we have more than doubled since that point and though we can go higher if your blue 1,2,3,4,5 count is accurate we should top out at around the $8100ish level. Now I noted this is yet to be determined because BTC' is seldom clear but it is something to look for.
I also drew a box around the last time we broke the channel where BTC' tried to form a new channel and failed. Very similar movements to the current channel and it has appeared to have held and reached a new ATH. Let's go back to Oct 16th where we posted the article long term with a fork in the road. We had a target price of $8200. Now we also were looking for a correction before getting there and that correction never came. BTC' is obviously operating on all 12 cylinders. This was a long term project (in crypto years) and since that post we were expecting several pullbacks prior to getting there which never seem to evolve. Hey nobody is perfect but that target has been there for over 3 weeks.
Yesterday I posted a new indicator the Stoch RSI. This is a great daytrading indicator, but I wanted to see if it could provide some direction in addition to the RSI as a week is an hour in cryptos so why not try. I noticed something interesting and I have marked specific points on the RSI' SRSI' and the chart to see if we could get any direction. Well this was the best I could find and though not perfect it does provide us some insight.
The SRSI is a momentum indicator that many times shows weakness or strength before we see it in the price. Which is why it's used by daytraders. After BTC' failed to pullback past the 0.236 level and then shot up to a new Ath I'm not sure we get a descent correction before we hit our target unless something fundamentally changes with segwit2x release. (this is a game changer and must be monitored). So I have drawn two paths as it is unclear whether the smaller fractal wave count in wave v has completed or not and this goes for wave iii' in black as well. Nobody knows. But we would assume the final wave to $8200 would be the 5th so I am going with this for now. If it turns out different then we re-adjust our charts and it is likely we go higher from here. But let's wait before assuming and go with what we have. I labeled and circled some interesting points on the SRSI which appear to be similar to the lat channel breakout. This is also confirmed by the RSI. Now these are not perfect but the moves are very similar. So it's open to interpretation. Note where Y is and how that lines up with both areas circled on the SRSI. So we would expect a blow off top here prior to getting a correction as we did in late Oct. This is what I'm looking for. This would set us up for the final wave v that started back on Sept 1st. It appears to be valid as normally wave 3's are the longest and wave 5's have been quite short on the recent fractal counts. So whether we retrace to $6000 (highly unlikely at this point) or dip to the $6500-$7000 area (more likely) is yet to be seen. But this could possibly set us up for a final trade for $8200ish area.
I also drew a box around the last time we broke the channel where BTC' tried to form a new channel and failed. Very similar movements to the current channel and it has appeared to have held and reached a new ATH. Let's go back to Oct 16th where we posted the article long term with a fork in the road. We had a target price of $8200. Now we also were looking for a correction before getting there and that correction never came. BTC' is obviously operating on all 12 cylinders. This was a long term project (in crypto years) and since that post we were expecting several pullbacks prior to getting there which never seem to evolve. Hey nobody is perfect but that target has been there for over 3 weeks.
Yesterday I posted a new indicator the Stoch RSI. This is a great daytrading indicator, but I wanted to see if it could provide some direction in addition to the RSI as a week is an hour in cryptos so why not try. I noticed something interesting and I have marked specific points on the RSI' SRSI' and the chart to see if we could get any direction. Well this was the best I could find and though not perfect it does provide us some insight.
The SRSI is a momentum indicator that many times shows weakness or strength before we see it in the price. Which is why it's used by daytraders. After BTC' failed to pullback past the 0.236 level and then shot up to a new Ath I'm not sure we get a descent correction before we hit our target unless something fundamentally changes with segwit2x release. (this is a game changer and must be monitored). So I have drawn two paths as it is unclear whether the smaller fractal wave count in wave v has completed or not and this goes for wave iii' in black as well. Nobody knows. But we would assume the final wave to $8200 would be the 5th so I am going with this for now. If it turns out different then we re-adjust our charts and it is likely we go higher from here. But let's wait before assuming and go with what we have. I labeled and circled some interesting points on the SRSI which appear to be similar to the lat channel breakout. This is also confirmed by the RSI. Now these are not perfect but the moves are very similar. So it's open to interpretation. Note where Y is and how that lines up with both areas circled on the SRSI. So we would expect a blow off top here prior to getting a correction as we did in late Oct. This is what I'm looking for. This would set us up for the final wave v that started back on Sept 1st. It appears to be valid as normally wave 3's are the longest and wave 5's have been quite short on the recent fractal counts. So whether we retrace to $6000 (highly unlikely at this point) or dip to the $6500-$7000 area (more likely) is yet to be seen. But this could possibly set us up for a final trade for $8200ish area.
Commentaire:
Updated wave count going into the final blow off. Keep in mind the path has become very clear, and I believe just about everyone has the same count at this point. When this happens, expect the unexpected!! Also keep in mind the market in general and the release of Segwit2x. I would not be recommending going long here for $8200 just like we did not recommend going short when it was a crowded trade. Crowded trades, obvious patterns, everyone having the same wave count often end up going the other direction as those shorting found out the past few weeks. With that said we should get an opportunity after the split to add to our BTC position as I feel the correction I have anticipated for over a month now will happen. $3000-$4500 would be a valid target level! But will update at an appropriate time. Other than the count the chart above is still valid, and we hit the retracement (green arrow) level we thought we would before resuming higher.
Also to those who think I am a paid BCH poster. This could not be further from the truth. I've been posting since late August and only a few weeks ago I posted on BCH for the first time. And that has close to doubled since. My core holdings consist of the following with the majority in BTC (yes the majority) BTC, ETH, BCH,LTC, XRP, DASH, OMG and NEO. I do have a speculative portfolio as well but those are minimal investments for moon shots which I do not care to disclose in this article.
I appreciate greatly all the good insight, comments, alternate views, and additional chart posts, as this is the purpose of these posts to get these ideas out there. But if you just want to post "your wrong again" with no substance please by all means hit the unfollow button. If you disagree please provide an argument or some thought as to why you disagree with class. I will just plainly start flagging those that post insults with no TA to back it up.