I've seen a few ideas published comparing the current crash to the one from 2014, but I'd like to remind everyone that that wasn't the only time the bubble popped. In 2013, there was a crash/correction (call it whatever makes you feel better) and I would argue that our current 'situation' resembles it more than the one from 2014. I'm not saying that 2014 isn't comparable to this one, but I think it's better to keep a well rounded understanding of Bitcoin's past crashes instead of cherry picking them to support your view.
I think the most important thing from 2013 is the reversal pattern that looks pretty darn similar to our latest and greatest bottom. We even broke down from the uptrend line afterwards like we're doing right now.
Something that is different, is that in 2013 the downtrend wasn't neatly contained within a channel like it was lately, and it had a much more severe initial low. There won't be a perfect replica.
My main point is that if we're comparing previous crashes, let's look at them all. Some of them are encouraging. The main thing is the psychology. How is sentiment now compared to back then?
Also, we then went on to a 4.236 extension high before the ensuing 2014 crash.
I think the most important thing from 2013 is the reversal pattern that looks pretty darn similar to our latest and greatest bottom. We even broke down from the uptrend line afterwards like we're doing right now.
Something that is different, is that in 2013 the downtrend wasn't neatly contained within a channel like it was lately, and it had a much more severe initial low. There won't be a perfect replica.
My main point is that if we're comparing previous crashes, let's look at them all. Some of them are encouraging. The main thing is the psychology. How is sentiment now compared to back then?
Also, we then went on to a 4.236 extension high before the ensuing 2014 crash.
Commentaire:
The past couple weeks have somewhat invalidated this comparison. At the moment we are on track with the 2014 correction. However, I don't think it will be a direct correlation/ unfolding of events, with 2014 being a worst case scenario. And we would still not enter a 2 year bear market because the comparison is unfolding at 3x the rate. So worst case is we are bull by late this year.