However, this same scenario saw in the immediate future a pump only up to $ 6500... however, we exceeded $ 8000
Why my scenario could not predict such amplitude / ?
Simply because the current pump is based on... PANIC BUY generated by a FUD by nature unpredictable
Phase 1: Bitcoin's PANIC BUY to protect themself from the nth FUD launched on Tether / Bitfinex... all but well-founded
Phase 2: SHORT SQUEEZE generated by this PANIC BUY... all but well-founded
Phase 3: PANIC BUY "followers" who saw the Bitcoin price fly away... all but well-founded
Phase 4: PANIC BUY now Altcoins by those who "missed the train" of Bitcoin and those who now find Bitcoin too expensive... all but well-founded
However, all the ingredients of the PANIC BUY which then gives rise to the PANIC SELL generalized (with renewed confidence in stable corners like Tether now that the FUD has fallen)
And the present idea shows that the parable of euphoria is identical to that of 2017 (similar inflection) as a new speculative bubble ready to burst: my idea of a Bull Trap target $ ~5k would still be valid ?
DISCLAIMER: This is not an investment advice.
Invest only what you can afford to lose.
Translation: we had to panic sell our Bitcoin to buy Tether
and we will panic sell our Tether for panic buy Bitcoin in 90 days ^^
Double Top confirmed
Downside Breakout confirmed
Personally on this long 100% BTC, I go back up my SL gradually:
A beautiful week to all,
But I don't hide you by cons that I'm puzzled since last night, with the double sub-$9000 rejection that seems to draw us a Rising Wedge.
It is now important to watch that the price of Bitcoin remains in the next few days in the white rectangle that I have drawn below.
Otherwise the price could be traced back to the low Risk Wedge (~ $ 8250), with the pronounced risk in a second time of a wedge breakout at $ 7000
The pattern that inspires me the most the current flag being a descending triangle, bull signals should not be too long if we don't want Bitcoin to finally agree with my Bull Trap scenario that here is updated:
This is not an invitation to sell but to increase your vigilance and tighten your stop loss / profit taking on the highly speculative current trend after the bear market of 2018.
But give it a try, you'll confirm one thing: yes, it can match with a peak at $ 10k or even more...
EXCEPT that it lengthens so much bear traps of 2017... THEN, there is no correction on this current pump!
If the pump continues in the same way, it would be unpublished in the history of Bitcoin... impossible? no... but statistically very improbable.
Starting from this observation, the only fractal that coincides is the one that I traced, until proven otherwise...
Try it please, I would like to be wrong (I am very bullish on the long term on Bitcoin... but not now)
If not at worst, it's the price that will invalidate this publication, but in this case please avoid saying that I'm ALREADY wrong ^^°