Bitcoin long term direction is closing in, part 2

24 sept. 2018

Since my last analysis we broke the 6500/6550 resistance and broke upwards to 6800. The market seemed to be very eager to push higher and break the 6800, but the volume was a bit on the low side. Weekend was ahead as well and usually we don't see big moves and break outs during the weekend. So even thought it was a small disappointment, it was no big surprise. During my weekend update i have been saying i rather see a correction towards 6600ish before making another rally. So far there has not been any real movement and also looking at the alts, everyone is waiting for the direction. Good thing about alts so far, they have been very stable and even moving a bit higher since Friday. This means the market is willing to go up, but there is not enough confidence yet to begin a real alt rally before Bitcoin 0.07% 0.08% breaks the important 6800 level and maybe even the 7000 border. But of course, no surprise after the massacre the alts have endured the past few months. Many alts are showing potential long/mid-term lows, so there is a foundation now to start a new rally. Volume has been good on some of the bigger alts which is a positive sign.

Since Bitcoin 0.07% 0.08% broke the 6500ish, my objective view changed from bearish to 50/50. If we break the 6800 with volume i really favor the bulls for the coming period. My subjective view has been bullish for a while now, past 2 months. For a while i was expecting that Bitcoin 0.07% 0.08% would make a big V shape drop below the 6000, but so far it has not happened. But instead, the alt market did make those panic lows, V shape lows. Many of them are half way to complete the V shape. So in my view, the coming week or 2 will be very important for this market.

For now, you can see a solid bull flag in the making, which still gives room for a drop to 6600ish. If we see the price turning up again there with some volume , we can expect a rally towards the 7100, assuming the 6800/6850 will break WITH volume . If this happens, my target for 9K prices will become very realistic. I am not predicting the end of the bear market here, just a mid-term possible prediction based on what i am seeing lately.
If the 6600ish breaks, it will invalid the bull flag and the short term bullish momentum will be gone and will turn slightly in favor of the bears again above the 6500. If this support breaks as well, we can still find support around the 6200/6300, but i won't give it a big chance it will. Because than we will probably see that red line (from my previous analysis) play out. Because it would mean we will see another significant lower high, from 8500/7400/6800. Failing to reach the blue resistance line, which will be a very weak sign and confirming the weakness of the market (if the 6200/6000 breaks)

So for now, the 6600ish has to hold to keep the optimal bullish view in play. If that level breaks, things change already but it wont be over. Below the 6500ish, i believe the bears will take control again.


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Previous analysis, i can recommend to read it (if you have not read it already)

24 sept. 2018

Note

An alternative for the bull flag, is this triangle here. If this is the case, i rather see a drop towards the 6600 first before going up. If we go up from here, there is a big chance that we will make a low volume breakout and will drop after reaching it's target around 6900ish.

24 sept. 2018

Note

I would keep an eye on the Bitfinex shorts/longs as well

24 sept. 2018

Note

So it eventually made a small drop and bounce back up again, it looked like a good bounce but while i am writing this it is weakening a bit. If that triangle was the right pattern, than this bounce was just a retest of former support and could see another wave down to test the support again.
The first drop would have already fit the picture of that last drop to test the bull flag, but there is stil some room left on the downside.

24 sept. 2018

Note

So we have dropped to the support area of the bull flag. This is the moment that we need to see support. Alta are making some drops now but so far no dumps yet. They dropped a bit more than I thought, shows a bit of fear but no panic yet.

With the exception of a fast wick down, the current level needs to hold for my very bullish view to be in play. What does stick out now, bitmex price being the most bullish. Bitmex had the lowest price for almost 2 months. Can’t say yet if it really has meaning or not, but like I said, it sticks out.

Goal for the bulls is to get above the 6710/6730. If they can manage that, the chances will be good to see more follow through. So far the resistance of that triangle showed it’s weight, that resistance needs to break. So the coming hours will be important

24 sept. 2018

Note

Dropped to the support zone, completing the bull flag, but there is still no bounce up so it's not looking bad but also not looking great. If it's stay to long around the 6600, big chance it will break, because it does not look like a Bart move at the moment. Meaning, it has to make a normal move up. Still going as planned so far, but anything below the 6710/30 is still dangerous.

24 sept. 2018

Note

This is the level to break for Bitcoin now. Around 6640/60. Some alts are already improving, so things start to look a bit better now. But the 6660 really needs to break!
I also see some lame as spoofing on Finex, don't know if they are trying to push it down or trying to hold it to close shorts (open shorts continue to close, check my open short/long analysis for this)

24 sept. 2018

Note

Moving so slow again, almost falling a sleep while watching this. The 6660 was to heavy the first attempt. At the moment there is still some buying support around 6600, but if that break we might see another drop. If that happens, we should see something like that blue line, a small V shape. Otherwise things might become too bearish again. Alts showed some sign of life a few hours ago, but those are dropping slowly towards the lows again. Many of them showing small bear flags.

It is normal for slow sideways movement within a flag, but it should not take too long. So i want to see a decision withing 24H.

25 sept. 2018

Note

So the first part of the V shape has happened, I think it is becoming an almost now or never. We have dropped below the support of that big bull flag, still around support level of 6500/6550. But for my bullish view to work out, we need to see a good bounce above the 6600 again, at least for now. Above 6660 could bring things in balance again, otherwise the bears will be in favor again with the red line of the primary chart, 6300/6350 might be the last support the bears need to break

25 sept. 2018

Note

And yet another drop where we don't see a bounce up. This means there are still no buyers to be found. First time today that Bitfinex is once again higher than the Bitmex brothers exchanges. The whole day it was at the same level as Bitmex, i did not know what to make of it. Could have been that Bitmex was bullish, which is the bears exchange, but in hindsight it was the other way around, Bitfinex was more bearish today. Now it has become clear what the strange dump was the other day (yellow circle in the right chart). Seems these sellers had already shown the way.

The red line scenario which i showed in my previous analysis is becoming much more likely now. As long as we don't see a good bounce after a drop this could just go on and on. Momentum is clearly in favor of the bears at the moment, but objectively the price is is still around a neutral zone, because making a higher low here is still possible. Seems the 6400ish is a small support for now, but from the looks of it might break as well.

25 sept. 2018

Note

My bullish view is not completely out of the window yet, the 9000 target is locked inside the closet again, because the bullish momentum i thought we had until yesterday, is gone for now. The road will be harder and longer now. Alts are showing different signs, some are still above clear support levels, other have dropped below them again, so no clues there at the moment. While i am writing this we are seeing the first small bounce of the day. Still only a 80/100 point bounce but at least it's a sign of life. Now what can we expect for the coming days, bearish version is simple, the 6400 which seemed to break has held, but if than one breaks, we can see another quick drop to test the 6300. Bullish version, it will probably take a day or 3 until the market recovers from this dump. So don't expect allot of upside movement. 6550 will probably be the max for now. So bearish, everything can go very fast, bullish, probably take a few days before some real movement.

25 sept. 2018

Note

Update