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seems we going to have red weeks ahead (2-4weeks)

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red line for hopium

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poc was 47491, its now 46386.
absorbed or sold ? leaning on distribution still.

volume surge towards resistance = evidence of supply.

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Note

Big flows into bonds this coming week; risk off

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Note

eager longs will be punished.

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red line shows bullas hopium.
dont see a any good retest of spring action.
i will only consider margin long if price reclaims and support on poc,
or market shows some signs of strength ( from spots )

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those red box is good buy opp anyway if it given.

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note

if price reclaims positive delta zone 44.9.
this will be a new range low, till then its range high.

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note

opposite view based on TA

3 drives reversal pattern
bullish divergence

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for the W(in)

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note

why CO made a range up here? and dumped on fresh demand?
btc going to further dip? like 30k?
check back later

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AKA 2nd spring?

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Not longing under 47300.

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derivative rally like 42-58k = not healthy, why volume is not moderate.

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47k is poc for this whole range up.
don't see good market buy action coming in from spot.
big longs opened in finex, not sure if its sustainable.

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note

March 26 Derebit options expiry
Notional Value 3.5b
Put/Call ratio 0.91
2 potential calls buying with bigger value 48k, 52k
puts - 40k Max pain > 28k

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note

Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $46,380

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $72.7M
　Sell: $77.5M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $331.2M
　Sell: $386.3M

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $22.3M
　Sell: $20.8M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

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note

Deribit BTC Options
Call OI：95870 (+2%) Vol：$14M (-18%)
Put OI：80135 (+1%) Vol：$14M (+16%)
PCR：77 (+1%)

RD】3/5 (8:00 UTC) C 9289 / P 9650
YE】3/12 C 4864 / P 4076
PL】3/19 C 1888 / P 1964
GN】3/26 C 39826 / P 36170
BL】4/30 C 5221 / P 4134

210301 13:35

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note

bounced with push on derivatives.
no signs of strength on spot market.
relief rally possible. no bias here, leaning we do have more downside after this.

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yellow box btc face supply

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zoom out.
its another accumulation. dont know the bottom, top.
should be defined soon.

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wyckoff theory / volume anal

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volume has trend

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note

47753 CB POC

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46891 FINEX

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note

finex premium gone when this range poc reversed.

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continuation vs reaccumulation

continuation target should be around over 69k
reaccumulation target range around 33-40 (with possible spring to 29k)

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black ghost pattern if its continuation

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open a position after confirmation, y loss bottom or top, but there is many move to come with.

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its like dec 2020. no moderate volume in rise, but it broke upward without strength.
sideline for now

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Btc - Buy vs Sell (Spot vs Derivs)

Price: $49,477

Spot Vol.
　Buy: $257.9M
　Sell: $172.1M

Derivs Vol.
　Buy: $1B
　Sell: $1B

USDT Vol.
　Buy: $18.1M
　Sell: $35.3M

(Latest 1 hours of data)

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382 support for leg up? 34k for reaccumulation?

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reclaim 618, i will look for long,
until then hedged with btc short.

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small prints from last day, keep getting smaller smaller.
lots of onchain movements.
exchanges seems refunding.
note
same happened last nov.30 ish, dec 25ish.

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4 hour vwap 46550
1 hour vwap 49002

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poc 46372

around 46k would be good point if y look for long.
not interested atm.

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note

dxy showing strength

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lots of absorption on range high

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and alts recovered well.

hmm? up we go?

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im buying spot btc.

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