BTCUSD - Treat the rally with caution

BTCUSD

The rally has created super excitement with Bitcoin eying 10,000. It can be easily classified as Mother of all rallies however it also looks over-stretched. Based on the above wave count, it should be the final phase of Wave 5 circle in the Bigger Wave 3. If this wave count is correct then we should see wave 4 correction sometime soon.
How deep wave 4 can go? Just looking into the steep channel, the bottom of the channel is around 5000 level. That should be the first major target of a bear market. The other key levels for retracement are 2800 and 1800 which were the levels of last three minor corrections. Bitcoin below 2000 is still a possibility but this needed to be assessed based on the wave structure formation during the correction.

When? It's a tough call as seasonality is not in favor of above analysis. December and January are generally bullish months for the financial markets which I think would also be the case for Cryptos. The seasonality might push prices a bit higher but it can't stop inevitable forever.

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