BTC Bear Attack?

5 août

這個是之前的規劃

現在來複習一下

上次最後一段我提到

”目前規劃大致上有4個路徑規格 可以參考

而機率上 紫色路徑的機率很高
原因是這個路徑符合了4個測量方式
但是也因為太過符合分析
是否有可能是一個陷阱？

不管如何依然按照紀律執行即可

而現在有沒有機會只是超跌 馬上要進行反轉
這個可能性不能說沒有
但是需要時間去消化情緒

個人是有在今天進場買入
主要是因為這邊算是一個潛在反轉區
但是如果情況持續惡化或者是無法有效突破下降趨勢線（橘色）
我會在跌破下降通道後暫時離場避險
“

回到圖面上
我在7-4號 買入後
隔日又殺一根 後開始反彈
這時我觀察的是黃色及白色預測線
但是量能上明顯對不上
所以我很幸運的在進入三角區間後
設立了一個停損位置 7-25號的低點

到此
我們可以先拿掉黃白色

This was the previous plan.
Let's review it now.
In the last section, I mentioned:
"Currently, there are roughly four path scenarios to consider.
Statistically, the probability of the purple path is high because it matches four measurement methods.
However, because it fits the analysis too well, could it be a trap?

Regardless, we should still execute according to discipline.
Is there a chance that this is just an overshoot and a reversal is imminent?
This possibility cannot be ruled out, but it will take time to digest the sentiment.
Personally, I entered the market today because this is considered a potential reversal area.
However, if the situation continues to deteriorate or if it fails to effectively break through the descending trendline (orange),
I will temporarily exit to hedge when it breaks below the descending channel.
"
Back to the chart: On 7/4, after I bought in, there was another drop the next day, followed by a rebound. At this point, I was observing the yellow and white prediction lines, but the volume clearly did not match. So I was fortunate enough to set a stop-loss position at the low point of 7/25 after entering the triangle zone.
At this point, we can remove the yellow and white lines.



接下來原則上 我們剩下
1.我之前偏向的紫色（紅色）
2.綠色 (現在的位置)
3.藍色

有鑑于綠色目前看起來有機會
我也另外把這個劇本的目標放上來
時間點沒錯剛好就是11月大選前

這也是為什麼我會在今天買進的原因之一

當然 我也會關注是否會在下探
走到紫色及藍色的劇本內

看下圖 你就會懂我的顧忌

Next, we are left with:
1 The purple (red) path I previously favored
2 The green path (current position)
3 The blue path
Given that the green path currently seems promising, I have also included the target for this scenario. The timing is just right before the November election, which is one of the reasons I bought in today.
Of course, I will also be watching for potential downturns into the purple and blue scenarios.
Looking at the chart below, you will understand my concerns:




另外 主圖這邊 我提供一個有可能出現的走勢
當然 這個只是一個臆測
但是依照時間推算 很有可能發生

Additionally, in the main chart here, I am providing a possible trajectory that might occur. Of course, this is just speculation, but based on the time calculation, it is very likely to happen.