About as close as you can come to a sure thing...

7 nov. 2020

A lot of traders are looking for a sure thing in the Forex market. Well let me tell you that they are hard to fine, and if you do find one, my best advice it to run away from it as fast as you can, because more than likely you are about to lose your shirt. But this setup on the CADCHF has been about as close as it gets to a sure thing. Now at this point, I will give you my standard warning... I consider myself a still wet behind the ears noob, when it comes to Forex trading, and have been live trading for less than a year. I actually went live the last week of Jan of this year... Just in time to catch the Covid 19 wild ride in March... Now that was a major learning experience. So if I have not scared you off with my revelation, then on to my analysis of the CADCHF pair.

The CADCHF pair likes, no LOVES to range. After the Swiss Franc took that sudden death drop in 2015, the pair found a range and quite faithfully held it for a full 5 years. Then Covid 19 happened and the world went crazy. The Canadian Dollar is largely an oil based currency. There was a short period of time, where the price of oil on the futures market dropped to below zero, that is, you were getting paid to take the contract off of their hands. That situation did not last very long and within just a few days, oil had bounced back to about $20 a barrel. What the heck is all of this talk of oil? What does it have to do with the Forex market? Well, when the oil price bottomed out, just by coincidence, ( did I mention that the Canadian Dollar is largely oil based? ), that is also the time that the CADCHF pair bottomed out in March of this year; setting a new 5 year low price point. Since that point in time, the price has predominantly been ranging between 6800 and 7000. The price has spiked above and below, but falls back between those parameters. You may notice that I have an up trend line under the wicks since Covid 19. Normally I do not use wicks for trend analysis, but this one seems one to take note of. The wicks are not going as low, although the candle closes have mostly stayed level. Notice I did say mostly. The last weekly low was a higher low like the wicks, suggesting that the floor is starting to rise. You will notice that I have my standard Green Go-For-It lines at 6869 6839 and 6809. These are my buy points. I set up a text alert of Trading View when the price drops below my Go-For-it lines, and That is when I buy. I buy 1 unit at 6869, and if the price falls to 6839 I will buy 2 units, and if the price continues to fall I will pick up another 3 units at 6809. I would not be surprised to see the 6839 price level again, but I'm not going to hold my breath for the 6809 price level. What is a unit you ask? Well that depends on the size of your trading account. If you are trading mini lots, then a unit is the number of minis that you are taking on standard trade, if you are trading standard lots, then a unit is the number of standard lots that you are taking on a standard trade, etc... Since this pair is so very close to it's 5 year floor, I am considering this pair as a BUY ONLY pair, until the price raises a bit farther from the floor. The pair has so much more potential to the upside and in my opinion, relatively limited downside potential. My take profit is 6990, as that has been a reliable topside price point. For a stop loss 6740 is what I use. The risk to reward ratio is only a 1:1 at the initial price point, but I consider this to be a high probability trade. You can use a lower stop loss if you want to.




One more interesting thing that I have notice with this pair for all of you scalpers and day traders. This is the 1 hour chart. I have noticed that with this pair on the 1 hour, and to an extent the 30 and 15 minute charts as well, the the EMA/SMA crossover has shown to be very respectable in determining entry/exit/reverse position points. This works best when trending, and during consolidation, it will eat your lunch and profits, so if the short term market is moving sideways, don't use this. The black line is my 8 period EMA and the yellowish orange is my 14 period SMA. When black crosses above the yellowish orange, buy and hold until it crosses below, and then close out the position. If you are so inclined to sell, this would be the appropriate point to do so. Check these out and back test them for yourself if you think that it looks promising. Remember almost nothing is 100% in the Forex market.

Now for my standard disclaimer: The views and observations represented above are the opinions and observations of a still wet behind the ears noob. Every trader must do their own due diligence. Any and all consequences as well as resulting profits or losses are entirely the responsibility of the trader. I am not investment advisor, guru or even a well seasoned trader, merely a still wet behind the ears noob, sharing my observations and opinions on this Forex currency pair.

18 nov. 2020

Note

The floor of the Post Covid 19 continues to rise. I have added 2 higher jump in points .6899 and .6929. The floor keeps rising, and my old entry points are not getting hit. You might notice a Go-For-It line sitting at .6859. BUT I have not put an alarm on it yet, and it is not yet active for me, as I feel that this is still a little bit too high to be entering a long position, but is there for now as a reference. I will wait to see if the higher highs start to trend into "The Desert". This price range has historically been a no man's land, with the exception of a few incursions in 2015, and then in 2016 it hung out there for awhile, and then a few more small incursions in 2017 and 2018. Nothing since then until Covid 19 took hold of the world. Then the price plummeted straight through The Desert, not even pausing to catch it's breath. Will The Desert prove to be a solid resistance level? I'm not sure, but I tend to think not, but I do think that it may well take more than one try to make a solid penetration into The Desert. The world is starting to return to some semi sorta resemblance to normal, and I think that this currency pair will follow suit. Long Term, I am looking for this pair to return to it's former glory and old haunt above .7300. How long will that take? I have not even a clue, but I do feel safe in saying that it will not be this year, quite possibly not the next year either. But as long as the upward trend continues, I will remain Bullish in 30 pip steps all the way back to .7300

Now for my standard disclaimer: The views and observations represented above are the opinions and observations of a still wet behind the ears noob. Every trader must do their own due diligence. Any and all consequences as well as resulting profits or losses, and so far they have been profits, are entirely the responsibility of the trader. I am not investment advisor, guru or even a well seasoned trader, merely a still wet behind the ears noob, sharing my observations and opinions on this Forex currency pair.

27 janv. 2021

Transaction en cours

The market continues to march slowly upwards. If the Post Covid floor holds, we make it through the desert in about 13 months and be scratching at the bottom of the post covid trading range. My feeling is that the pair will settle into The Desert for it's new range, but we will have to wait and see. As you can see the pair has been in an upward channel since July of last year. Now one of the things that any good technical analyst can tell you, is that technical analysis is by it's very nature highly subjective. For example, although the pair is in an upwards corridor, it you move that top trend line back about 5 or 6 weeks, then that corridor turns into a wedge. The reason that I am ignoring the wedge in favor of the corridor, is that the spike seems to have been just that a spike, and then the pair resumed it's normal activity, that is ranging. This pair after all does love to range. I really don't care how far back you look, it is a ranger. Granted in Jan of 2015 when the CHF was unpegged from the Euro, the price did a MAJOR break out, but again, notice that after the break out, the price went right back to ranging. It did have a couple of spikes, but then returned to it's normal range. That is what this pair likes to do. I have put in 2 sell position lines on my chart, and continue to move up the buy lines as the price moves up and the lower price levels fall into the "Out of Bounds" zone. I remain overall bullish, but am willing to take a SMALL sell trade when the price reaches the upper levels of the channel. At this point in time, I am only willing to take 1 addon trade below the floor line, as I realize that the range will eventually flatten out, and as any good technical analysist will tell you, EVERY trend line gets broken at some point. When that is, only the market know. I have seen trend lines hold up for over 8 years, and on smaller time frame charts, other trend lines that get broken in just a matter of minutes.