CHF/JPY: Ascending Triangle Forming

After starting the year with a wild plunge, thanks to the Yen flash crash, CHF/JPY has steadily been climbing upwards. It has hit a major resistance level after retracing from its most recent low to 78.6%, a significant Fibonacci level. In the midst of this retracement upwards, the pair has begun forming an ascending triangle (green lines). An ascending triangle following a recent down trend, is usually a bullish signal. The support channel line is also being supported by the 12-period Moving Average. However, I am hesitant to place the trade right now due to the fact that resistance is coming from the Fibonacci level. I would wait to see over the next few 4-hour trading periods if the pair continues trading above the support channel line, and is able to touch the resistance line again. That would signal to me, that there is a strong chance of it breaking upwards.

I will update tomorrow, but keep monitoring it.

If it reaches above 111.235, I would place a buy position, with a stop at 110.861, and a take profit at 111.440 (another level of resistance that the pair tested at the very beginning of the month).

Please let me know if you have any suggestions or feedback as well! I am always open to hearing other perspectives or corrections if I mistake something. I hope to learn as well by publishing these charts.

Commentaire:

The pair continued to test 111.235 level but was unable to significantly close above. That level seems to be the resistance that it cannot break, as it is trending downwards now.