Elliott wave analysis on oil in weekly chart (2016-04-09)

Above is weekly chart of USOIL in log scale. Oil is in a wedge currently. It will meet an important resistance level at around 40~42.5. From elliott wave analysis this wedge has completed ABCD waves. The following wave E might bring oil to 31~32 again (The wave E might be a failed five waves. I do not think it will creat a new low because of the extended wave C). Afterwards oil's bearish which starts at July 7th, 2008 will finish and Oil's bull market will start.

From time analysis, the wave E will probably finish in the week of May 23th, 2016.

Notes: if oil breaks 40~42.5 resistance region and does not retrace back in the next two weeks, this analysis will be invalid.

Good luck for everyone!

Commentaire:

Here is a monthly chart to compare. I changed the count for primary wave B a bit.
www.tradingview.com/...analysis-2016-01-21/
My point is oil will finish the bearish cycle soon, if you trade oil in long term it might be a good opportunity to build the long position in the following E wave. It will have a huge up after the E wave.