CORN futures: Cycles, 200MA cross and a double bottom
“Hmmm, whats corn up to?” Glad you asked.
Looks like harvest is upon us. All commodities are cyclical, and agricultural commodities are seasonally cyclical. The red cycle lines go back to when Noah came off the ark and so you could almost set this to your clock. Now I’m not about to speculate what market conditions cause the price to normally rise in corn; go ask a farmer that question. This year however seems somehow different. I am absolutely expecting the typical rise and fall that happens every year. However this year seems to have set itself up different from all other years.
The Price action has crossed the 200 week MA and has just bounced off it proving its support. In the process creating a double bottom. The neckline of the double bottom indicated by the red dotted line will serve as our breakout point. Now I would not be in the slightest surprised that once it hits that neck line we get a failure and a return to the lower blue trend line. This condition will create a triangle, ultimately increasing the potential upward pressure that the price will see once the cycle hits. In 2015, 2016, and 2019 the rise going into the cycle peak was very sudden and I believe that the triangle could present a condition where the rush could really push this thing upward beyond the long term resistance at 4.22.
From where the price is today we’re looking at ~10% return if we have a return to resistance at 4.22. However given a triangle, a change in trend indicated by the 200 week MA cross this could indicate a very savage rise.
Looks like harvest is upon us. All commodities are cyclical, and agricultural commodities are seasonally cyclical. The red cycle lines go back to when Noah came off the ark and so you could almost set this to your clock. Now I’m not about to speculate what market conditions cause the price to normally rise in corn; go ask a farmer that question. This year however seems somehow different. I am absolutely expecting the typical rise and fall that happens every year. However this year seems to have set itself up different from all other years.
The Price action has crossed the 200 week MA and has just bounced off it proving its support. In the process creating a double bottom. The neckline of the double bottom indicated by the red dotted line will serve as our breakout point. Now I would not be in the slightest surprised that once it hits that neck line we get a failure and a return to the lower blue trend line. This condition will create a triangle, ultimately increasing the potential upward pressure that the price will see once the cycle hits. In 2015, 2016, and 2019 the rise going into the cycle peak was very sudden and I believe that the triangle could present a condition where the rush could really push this thing upward beyond the long term resistance at 4.22.
From where the price is today we’re looking at ~10% return if we have a return to resistance at 4.22. However given a triangle, a change in trend indicated by the 200 week MA cross this could indicate a very savage rise.
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