Possible expanding wedge/diagonal in play on the DOW. If it plays out then it's short to about 17650 and then back up again to possibly complete the fifth and final wave of this possible ending structure.
There are 2 possible counts on chart, small red circled count and larger blue circled count. I am at this stage mainly considering the blue count as most likely.
The red one is possible too imo, in that case it's important to closely watch PA around the lower diagonal trendline. If that breaks to the downside then we might have a good short breakout setup coming up (red dashed arrow)...
As for the blue count: Depending on the timespan of the moves a possible up move could coincide with a test of the former high around 18350, as it looks now though (and IF it turns out to be what I think!), it's likely that PA will reach that high level before it reaches the upper boundary trendline of the possible wedge in which case I will not wait until the upper boundary is hit and I will short at the high (see blue rectangle)!
An observation concerning the blue count: Looking at the previous 3 waves inside the diagonal it seems that we could be forming a 5-3-5-3-5 structure: 5-3-5 already formed, so if it continues like this wave 4 down should complete as a 3-wave structure and wave 5 up should complete as a 5-wave structure.
In case it does: such a structure is more likely to form in a leading diagonal than in an ending diagonal... (BUT: not a rule, only a guideline...).
There are 2 possible counts on chart, small red circled count and larger blue circled count. I am at this stage mainly considering the blue count as most likely.
The red one is possible too imo, in that case it's important to closely watch PA around the lower diagonal trendline. If that breaks to the downside then we might have a good short breakout setup coming up (red dashed arrow)...
As for the blue count: Depending on the timespan of the moves a possible up move could coincide with a test of the former high around 18350, as it looks now though (and IF it turns out to be what I think!), it's likely that PA will reach that high level before it reaches the upper boundary trendline of the possible wedge in which case I will not wait until the upper boundary is hit and I will short at the high (see blue rectangle)!
An observation concerning the blue count: Looking at the previous 3 waves inside the diagonal it seems that we could be forming a 5-3-5-3-5 structure: 5-3-5 already formed, so if it continues like this wave 4 down should complete as a 3-wave structure and wave 5 up should complete as a 5-wave structure.
In case it does: such a structure is more likely to form in a leading diagonal than in an ending diagonal... (BUT: not a rule, only a guideline...).
Strong rejection at the trendline, now back at around 17792 on my MT4, possibly on to new highs now...