Are the Dominoes about to fall?
December 2022 saw Domino's reaching a high of $567.57 before reaching a base of $285.84, a drop of 50% from the highs. Since then, DPZ has rallied with the rest of the market, up 22% YTD aat press time, seeing a level of sell pressure as it dances around the $500 mark.
Looking at the daily timeframe below...
...you can see a topping out structure as the C wave of a larger wave B approaches the 1.272 fib . This, I suggest will be followed by a Wave C of your larger A-B-C corrective pattern, targetting the 1.272 or 1.618 extensions of the wave A ($567.57 to $285.84). The targets are as follows:
- 1.272: $209.03 (-58.37%)
- 1.618: $164.87 (-66.93%)
Looking at reasons for this, I can't find much. The one thing I do find worrying is the company's nagative equity situation. In their Balance sheet for the year end 2023, Domino's reported $1.77bn in total assets and $5.84bn in liabilities. A worsening of this situation would definitely be a cause for concern. Since much of this is most likely property debt, with a slowing down of the housing market, and potential reversal on the cards(?), my thesis would be that Domino's would no longer be able to afford their properties.
Anyway, let me know what you think....and if you'd choose Domino's over pizza Hut.
Cheers for reading
Looking at the daily timeframe below...
...you can see a topping out structure as the C wave of a larger wave B approaches the 1.272 fib . This, I suggest will be followed by a Wave C of your larger A-B-C corrective pattern, targetting the 1.272 or 1.618 extensions of the wave A ($567.57 to $285.84). The targets are as follows:
- 1.272: $209.03 (-58.37%)
- 1.618: $164.87 (-66.93%)
Looking at reasons for this, I can't find much. The one thing I do find worrying is the company's nagative equity situation. In their Balance sheet for the year end 2023, Domino's reported $1.77bn in total assets and $5.84bn in liabilities. A worsening of this situation would definitely be a cause for concern. Since much of this is most likely property debt, with a slowing down of the housing market, and potential reversal on the cards(?), my thesis would be that Domino's would no longer be able to afford their properties.
Anyway, let me know what you think....and if you'd choose Domino's over pizza Hut.
Cheers for reading
Commentaire:
For reference on that last point, DPZ fell 92% during the last recession, possibly heavily affected by the housing market
Commentaire:
Another possibility would be a boycott of US brands in the middle east.