Weekly report DXY: Elliot analysis (keep Short in midterm)
The last week the price move inside of a range, in a flat structure between 97.5 and 97.0 I expect one more upside movement near the area of the upper part of the channel.
What to keep on consideration:
In the fundamental side: The fears of a recession in the US economy have been fading, the treasury yield curve is no longer showing signals of recession, the 10 yrs bond yield(2.50%) keep above the 3 months notes (2.44%), friday jobs report (197k) demonstrate that the weak result of march (33k) was just an outlier data. The trade deal and brexit situation is right now prevailing in the FX market not allowing to reflect the fading fear of a recession. In the week ahead we need to pay attention to wednesday FOMC Minutes to analysis the Fed opinion to the new datas.
In the technical side: The market show up a flat structure with no clear direction on the price, if we put the timeframe of 4H we can see better the flat structure, according Elliot this kind of movement is a characteristic of a retracement process, in this case can be the 4th wave, where the 3rd wave already touched the 161.8 extension of the 1st wave, so im expecting a 5th wave which one can touch the 261.8 extension, near the upper part of the channel.
Source:
cnbc.com/2019/04/05/strong-jobs-number-dashes-recession-fears-and-shows-fed-it-does-not-need-to-move-on-rates.html
forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=apr7.2019
treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
cnbc.com/2019/04/05/first-quarter-earnings-are-expected-to-be-lousy-but-stock-market-may-not-care.html
What to keep on consideration:
In the fundamental side: The fears of a recession in the US economy have been fading, the treasury yield curve is no longer showing signals of recession, the 10 yrs bond yield(2.50%) keep above the 3 months notes (2.44%), friday jobs report (197k) demonstrate that the weak result of march (33k) was just an outlier data. The trade deal and brexit situation is right now prevailing in the FX market not allowing to reflect the fading fear of a recession. In the week ahead we need to pay attention to wednesday FOMC Minutes to analysis the Fed opinion to the new datas.
In the technical side: The market show up a flat structure with no clear direction on the price, if we put the timeframe of 4H we can see better the flat structure, according Elliot this kind of movement is a characteristic of a retracement process, in this case can be the 4th wave, where the 3rd wave already touched the 161.8 extension of the 1st wave, so im expecting a 5th wave which one can touch the 261.8 extension, near the upper part of the channel.
Source:
cnbc.com/2019/04/05/strong-jobs-number-dashes-recession-fears-and-shows-fed-it-does-not-need-to-move-on-rates.html
forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=apr7.2019
treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/pages/textview.aspx?data=yield
cnbc.com/2019/04/05/first-quarter-earnings-are-expected-to-be-lousy-but-stock-market-may-not-care.html
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