DXY Don't let the Fed mislead you. Long-term it's still bullish.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is taking punishment since the October high and this week in particular after the Fed Rate Decision. In times of price distortion by fundamentals, we always think it is useful to look into the longer term time-frames (1W and over) for technical patterns that withstand fundamental irregularities and filter out the news noise.

In that sense, we present to you today the long-term (1W) outlook on DXY, which is trading within a Channel Up since the March 02 2009 High, which was effectively the bottom of the last major Bear Cycle, the U.S. Housing Crisis. Needless to say, such events are shape shifters for the markets and initiate dominant trends and patterns that are very difficult to break (at least without similar catalysts).

This 14-year Channel Up is such a dominant pattern with 4 confirmed Higher Highs. The Sine Waves very accurately capture all of those Highs on their tops. After every such High, the DXY declines aggressively towards the Channel's bottom and after it forms it, it starts rising on Higher Lows, effectively forming a Channel Up (dotted lines). The current Channel Up is approaching its bottom and is technically the most optimal long-term buy opportunity.

The previous two have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before declining again. That is now at 108.500 and this is our long-term target.

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