Since this chart published during August 2014, after a first momentum burst, dollar stayed in a trading range for more than 6 years.
102-103 area, coinciding with 61.8 fib from 2001 high to 2008 low, proved too tough to break, after the target of the broken triangle reached during January 2017.
Now, it's third time visiting this area. More often than not big areas need 3 or 4 times to break.
Is this the right time to break out?
I wish I new. I'm just long the dollar since July 2021 against EM currencies, euro and yen mostly.
Fundamentals (rates, central bank balance sheets, etc) and geopolitical situation pushing the dollar up so far.
Obviously is at resistance area, right at the 2020 high now, completing the yearly reversal pattern, so shake outs should be expected, but I see no reason so far to have a trend change for the long horizon. We'll need at least a negative quarter close for that let alone a yearly one for confirmation.
Until then, staying long.
Cheers,
P
102-103 area, coinciding with 61.8 fib from 2001 high to 2008 low, proved too tough to break, after the target of the broken triangle reached during January 2017.
Now, it's third time visiting this area. More often than not big areas need 3 or 4 times to break.
Is this the right time to break out?
I wish I new. I'm just long the dollar since July 2021 against EM currencies, euro and yen mostly.
Fundamentals (rates, central bank balance sheets, etc) and geopolitical situation pushing the dollar up so far.
Obviously is at resistance area, right at the 2020 high now, completing the yearly reversal pattern, so shake outs should be expected, but I see no reason so far to have a trend change for the long horizon. We'll need at least a negative quarter close for that let alone a yearly one for confirmation.
Until then, staying long.
Cheers,
P
