DXY | Top Down Analysis Pre-NFP.

Monthly Time-Frame:

• ICT Market Maker Buy Model.
  
• Reversal at monthly FVG & stophunt.
  
• BOS as 2023 old high of the year taken. External Range Liquidity -> Internal Range Liquidity.
  Therefore, 1M FVG below is current DOL.
  

Daily Time-Frame:

• Monthly Time-frame suggest we can sweep into 1M FVG below
  
• October Seasonals = Consolidation.
  
  
  
  
• Commitment Of Traders Data (COT) = indicates shift of Net Short Positions,(18th September 2023) for the large commercials (Central Banks, Large Funds)
  Therefore it indicates that the month of october will consolidate.
  
• Price respecting HTF Bearish Array. Note how OB mean threshold is respected.
  
• Price wicking below previous lows indicating change in state.
  
• October Monthly Low (24/11/2023) is current DOL with the 1M FVG liquidity pool below.
  

4 Hour Time-Frame:
For extra clarity as we move into intraday time-frames.

1 Hour/Intra-Day Time-Frame:

• Identify ICT Market Maker Sell Model.
  Original Consolidation, Accumulation 1&2, Smart Money Reversal, Re-accumulation 1
  
• Price traded through Previous Weekly High & Relative Equal Highs on wednesday New York Session.
  External Range Liquidity -> Internal Range Liquidity.
  
• Identify Range Low & High for Premium/Discount Arrays.
  
• Use Major PD arrays from the Buy-Side Of Curve to identify entry points on the Sell-Side Of Curve.
  
• Target is the sell-side liquidity below the Original Consolidation and 1M FVG liquidity pool.
  
• Weekly Profile Wednesday Weekly High.
  
  

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Commentaire:

Eyes peeled for any sort of institutional sponsorship and or respect to bullish PD arrays, only then price can be engaged.
NFP week = Judas of the Month