10/6 Trading Plan - Reviewing Wednesday and Looking Ahead
Recap
Over the last week, I've consistently referred to a single trendline in ES - the core bull market trendline from October 2022 in the low 4300 area. This week, almost every significant move was related to this simple trendline. On Tuesday, we saw a hard sell on the failure of it, triggering a deep sell to 4235. However, on Wednesday, we rallied to 4304 high of day.
Key Structures
Support Levels
4290, 4279-83 (major), 4269, 4254-58 (major), 4242, 4227-30 (major), 4212 (major), 4206, 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4154 (major), 4144, 4133, 4127 (major), 4109 (major), 4100, 4093, 4075-80 (major).
Resistance Levels
4296 (major), 4308 (major), 4314, 4320 (major), 4336, 4348 (major), 4355, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4386, 4400, 4411, 4418, 4425 (major), 4439, 4450 (major), 4460, 4467, 4473 (major), 4480, 4496, 4507 (major), 4513 (major).
Trading Plan
The bullish setup here is that this entire range between 4296 and 4258 or so is a large consolidation to set up a fresh trend leg higher.
The bear case would be that the stubborn 4254-58 needs to fail for there to be any true bear case. My goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Today, we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which adds a massive “wild card” to the price. My general lean though is that 4296-54 is a range to set up a move higher. This new leg should target 4320, 4336 then 4348 at least. Should 4254 fail though, then ES probably needs a new low and I would expect it to tag 4230 at least. There is high uncertainty here, and I’ll be reacting as per the above plan.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
Over the last week, I've consistently referred to a single trendline in ES - the core bull market trendline from October 2022 in the low 4300 area. This week, almost every significant move was related to this simple trendline. On Tuesday, we saw a hard sell on the failure of it, triggering a deep sell to 4235. However, on Wednesday, we rallied to 4304 high of day.
Key Structures
- 4377-80: The downsloping channel is connecting the June 26th and August 18th lows.
- 4336: A major pivot that connects the September 2022, Feb 2023, and June 2023 highs.
- 4308: The core bull market uptrend line in green.
- 4254-58, then 4227-31: Major levels below 4308.
- 4212-05: A critical level below 4227.
-
Support Levels
4290, 4279-83 (major), 4269, 4254-58 (major), 4242, 4227-30 (major), 4212 (major), 4206, 4190 (major), 4175 (major), 4166, 4154 (major), 4144, 4133, 4127 (major), 4109 (major), 4100, 4093, 4075-80 (major).
Resistance Levels
4296 (major), 4308 (major), 4314, 4320 (major), 4336, 4348 (major), 4355, 4366, 4377-80 (major), 4386, 4400, 4411, 4418, 4425 (major), 4439, 4450 (major), 4460, 4467, 4473 (major), 4480, 4496, 4507 (major), 4513 (major).
Trading Plan
The bullish setup here is that this entire range between 4296 and 4258 or so is a large consolidation to set up a fresh trend leg higher.
The bear case would be that the stubborn 4254-58 needs to fail for there to be any true bear case. My goal is always to get in as close as possible to either a recent high/low, or near a recent base.
Wrap Up
Today, we have the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which adds a massive “wild card” to the price. My general lean though is that 4296-54 is a range to set up a move higher. This new leg should target 4320, 4336 then 4348 at least. Should 4254 fail though, then ES probably needs a new low and I would expect it to tag 4230 at least. There is high uncertainty here, and I’ll be reacting as per the above plan.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision
