S&P 500 Next Week Expected Move ($45) and Gravity Points
Leaning slightly bullish due to the weight of the evidence but there are too many binary events coming up in the coming week that could throw off my thesis. Plus we rallied so strongly the last 3 weeks that I wouldn't discount the fact that the market might just consolidate while it waits for the G20 meeting.
Blew through last week's expected move ($41) and had a $63 gain on the week. This next week the options market is pricing in a $45 move higher or $45 lower, nondirectional. Amazingly, for the first time in 18 months I have no Gravity Points lurking above us to target. They have served me very well and I hope they have for you. I will continue to locate Gravity Points going forward as we make them.
Many significant things occurred this week. I'll list those I'm aware of:
(Negative) - Economic data is now definitively weakening - shown by the Empire Manufacturing Data and several others
(Positive) - The Dollar; $DXY, $UUP is on the brink of breaking down
(Neutral) - Most interestingly; $GOLD, $GLD is breaking out of a 5 year base which adds to the bearish case on the USD
(Neutral) - I think Small Caps $IWM might turn the corner and start leading relatively soon here, the ratio between the $IWM and the $DIA is at the low end of its historical range, however my two favorite market leading indicators the IWM and DJT weekly charts failed at the moving averages and is nowhere near all time highs which is bearish.
(Positive) - Market Sentiment is very neutral, which is odd given that we are making new all time highs and a positive omen going forward
(Positive) - Copper is staging a bullish reversal which is a relief for foreign equities
(Positive) - OIL; $USOIL is staging a bullish reversal which is also bullish
(Neutral) - Quadruple Witching occurred this week which means there's a lot of rebalancing going on
(Negative) - The $VVIX and $VIX are both back to considerably low levels
(Neutral) - The correlation between bonds and stocks is very high and unsustainable; typically I trust the debt market over the equity market but not this time
(Positive) - Bonds; $TLT created a significant bearish divergence after rallying for nearly 20% in 6 months
(Positive) - Related to the TLT, the $TNX had a capitulation low at 1.95. Now that the FOMC is out of the way, I think bonds will stop advancing in the near term.
Scorecard:
Bullish - 6
Neutral - 4
Bearish - 2
Last Week's Post:
www.tradingview.com/...41-5-Gravity-Points/
I'm not sure if this makes any difference for getting this post out there or not but I'm going to try it out anyways. Don't know how the system works.
$SPY SPY $ES1! ES1! $SPX SPX $DIA DIA $QQQ QQQ $NDX NDX $IWM IWM $RUT RUT $IYT IYT $DJT DJT
Blew through last week's expected move ($41) and had a $63 gain on the week. This next week the options market is pricing in a $45 move higher or $45 lower, nondirectional. Amazingly, for the first time in 18 months I have no Gravity Points lurking above us to target. They have served me very well and I hope they have for you. I will continue to locate Gravity Points going forward as we make them.
Many significant things occurred this week. I'll list those I'm aware of:
(Negative) - Economic data is now definitively weakening - shown by the Empire Manufacturing Data and several others
(Positive) - The Dollar; $DXY, $UUP is on the brink of breaking down
(Neutral) - Most interestingly; $GOLD, $GLD is breaking out of a 5 year base which adds to the bearish case on the USD
(Neutral) - I think Small Caps $IWM might turn the corner and start leading relatively soon here, the ratio between the $IWM and the $DIA is at the low end of its historical range, however my two favorite market leading indicators the IWM and DJT weekly charts failed at the moving averages and is nowhere near all time highs which is bearish.
(Positive) - Market Sentiment is very neutral, which is odd given that we are making new all time highs and a positive omen going forward
(Positive) - Copper is staging a bullish reversal which is a relief for foreign equities
(Positive) - OIL; $USOIL is staging a bullish reversal which is also bullish
(Neutral) - Quadruple Witching occurred this week which means there's a lot of rebalancing going on
(Negative) - The $VVIX and $VIX are both back to considerably low levels
(Neutral) - The correlation between bonds and stocks is very high and unsustainable; typically I trust the debt market over the equity market but not this time
(Positive) - Bonds; $TLT created a significant bearish divergence after rallying for nearly 20% in 6 months
(Positive) - Related to the TLT, the $TNX had a capitulation low at 1.95. Now that the FOMC is out of the way, I think bonds will stop advancing in the near term.
Scorecard:
Bullish - 6
Neutral - 4
Bearish - 2
Last Week's Post:
www.tradingview.com/...41-5-Gravity-Points/
I'm not sure if this makes any difference for getting this post out there or not but I'm going to try it out anyways. Don't know how the system works.
$SPY SPY $ES1! ES1! $SPX SPX $DIA DIA $QQQ QQQ $NDX NDX $IWM IWM $RUT RUT $IYT IYT $DJT DJT
Commentaire:
Realized I had an earlier one too from the 7th, I shifted Target two down slightly by the 9th when I posted the better looking public one.
www.tradingview.com/...PY-Hurst-Prediction/
www.tradingview.com/...PY-Hurst-Prediction/
Commentaire:
Think I waited for the hand-drawn Black Channel timeframe to be broken to post the public one. But the Regression Analysis 3 SD Trendline technique gave us a warning sign earlier than the hand-drawn did.
Commentaire:
ABBV Looking interesting
ABBV Looking interesting
Commentaire:
$ABBV
Does anyone remember this chart from May 9th?
Would you call this a Short Term Trade, Intermediate Term Trade, or Long Term Trade?
I honestly don't know for myself.
Also I like showing off a bit every once in a while ;)
www.tradingview.com/...gence-Kudzu-Pattern/