ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Key Levels, Setups for Thur (Oct 23)

Bias: The market shows a neutral to slightly bullish outlook as long as prices remain above the 6739–6751 control band. A decisive break and sustained trading above 6780 would indicate a shift in momentum to the upside, targeting the levels of 6804 to 6812. Conversely, if we lose support at 6739, we could see a decline toward 6712, with 6691 serving as a key level that may attract selling pressure.

Execution windows: London 02:00–05:00 optional small size. NY AM 09:30–11:00 primary. NY PM 13:30–16:00 primary. Midday is manage-only; avoid initiating.

Setups

Short pop-and-fail at 6773–6780
– Trigger: 15m rejection back inside the band → 5m re-close below ~6773 → first 1m pullback stalls beneath 6773
– Entry: sell the pullback beneath 6773
– Stop: hard SL above the 15m rejection wick by 0.25–0.50
– Targets: TP1 6751, TP2 6739, TP3 6712
– Invalidation: 6780 converts to support on a full-body 15m close

Long breakout continuation above 6780
– Trigger: 15m full-body close beyond 6780 → 5m pullback holds 6777–6780 and re-closes up → 1m higher-low entry
– Entry: buy the hold at 6777–6780
– Stop: hard SL below the 15m trigger wick by 0.25–0.50
– Targets: TP1 6804, TP2 6812, TP3 6835–6850

Long sweep-and-reclaim at 6712 → 6691
– Trigger: quick sweep of 6712 (or flush toward 6691) that immediately reclaims 6712 on 5m → 1m higher-low entry
– Entry: buy first pullback after the reclaim of 6712
– Stop: hard SL below the 15m sweep wick by 0.25–0.50
– Targets: TP1 6739, TP2 6751, TP3 6773–6780